Azerbaijani Opposition Finally Joins Forces

Azerbaijan’s two main opposition parties, which have tended to squabble among themselves as often as they battled the government, have finally agreed to join forces.

Isa Qambar, a veteran politician who played a leading role in the movement for independence from the Soviet Union, has proposed that his Musavat party should merge with the Popular Front once the November parliamentary election is over.

Speaking at a Popular Front meeting on July 15, he said he would step down as leader of Musavat, but that he wanted the new party to bear that name.

Activists from the rival party praised his gesture, but independent analysts said the government had such a firm grip on power now that even a united opposition was unlikely to shake it.

“I’m very positive about Isa Qambar’s proposal that we unite into one party,” said Ali Karimli, chairman of the Popular Front. “This is more realistic now than it would have been in the past. Before, there were issues that united as well as divided us. Sadly, after the [parliamentary] 2005 election, our positions grew apart, but today things are different. The main thing is that we have common roots and the same shared principles,”

Qambar said the opposition’s historical lack of unity did not mean it was weak.

“Otherwise,” he asked, “why would the government limit our freedom and opportunities?”

Both parties were born out of the nationalist movement of the late 1980s, although they trace their origins back to the short-lived existence of an independent Azerbaijan following the 1917 Russian Revolution.

The Popular Front and Musavat became estranged in the years after Azerbaijan became independent in 1991, and the divide has persisted even though they have cooperated during elections and both oppose the current president, Ilham Aliyev.

These differences have weakened their ability to oppose the Aliyev administration. Analysts say the proposed united party could prove significantly stronger, and could bring together a broader cross-section of people opposed to the current government.

Eldar Namazov, head of the In the Name of Azerbaijan forum, says, “They ran for parliament in a single bloc in 2005 and produced good results, even though the authorities managed to fix the results in their favour. I think that parties which are united by policies and a common social base will be able to fight more effectively together than apart.”

Opposition activists have consistently complained that the government has used its power to obstruct them in past elections, and international observers have tended to agree with them.

After the 2003 presidential election, in which Musavat and the Popular Front fielded rival candidates and Aliyev was awarded an overwhelming victory with 76 per cent of the vote against Qambar’s 14, opposition supporters staged massive street protests.

“Ilham Aliyev saw the strength of the opposition during the 2003 election,” said Arif Hacili, a Musavat activist. “Isa Qambar effectively won…. Most exit polls showed he had gained the majority of votes. Because of the massive fraud perpetrated at polling stations, people came out onto the streets to make their voices heard. And the authorities used force against the protesters.”

Similar complaints were heard after subsequent elections. Some 40 opposition candidates from the 2005 last parliamentary election have taken their claims of fraud to the European Court of Human Rights. So far six have won their cases and have been awarded compensation.

However, Anar Mammadli, head of the non-government Election Monitoring Centre, doubts even a united opposition will make significant headway in this November’s parliamentary polls

“In the last five years, a lot of things have changed for the worse. People have completely lost their faith in fair elections, and the situation with freedom of speech is a lot worse than in 2005. Political groups cannot organise for action, and the press has been forced into a corner,” he said. “Under such circumstances it makes sense to welcome the formation of large opposition blocs, but sadly they aren’t going to change the political situation significantly.”

Yeni Azerbaijan, the government party which dominates the political scene, said it was not alarmed at the prospect of competition from a united opposition, and suggested that the new group was driven by outside interests.

“One cannot rule out that the idea of uniting was proposed abroad,” the party’s deputy leader Ali Ahmadov said.

Popular Front activist Rahim Hacili accused Yeni Azerbaijan of trying to smear the opposition as a way of covering up its alarm at the way things were going.

“You shouldn’t be surprised by Ahmadov’s remarks,” he said. “The Azerbaijani government has recently come under greater pressure from the West and from Europe. It already senses that relations with the international community can’t be based solely on energy interests. Demands for democratisation are going to become ever tougher.”

Hacili predicted that the effect of western pressure to reform would be that the Aliyev administration would draw closer to Moscow while portraying opposition demands for democracy as foreign-inspired.

“They’d have it that the Azerbaijani opposition is not autonomous and is a plaything in the hands of foreign forces. But the opposition has its own head on its shoulders,” he said.

Samira Ahmedbeyli is an IWPR staff reporter. Sabuhi Mammadli is a reporter with the Azadliq newspaper.