Can Turkmenistan Cosy up to Washington?

Following the recent downturn in relations with Uzbekistan, rumours have circulated that the United States is on the lookout for new allies in the region - and that Turkmenistan might just fit the bill.

But local analysts believe the speculation is more a reflection on the way Turkmen president Saparmurat Niazov, or Turkmenbashi, tries to play international diplomacy than an indication of serious US policy intentions.

When it enlisted Uzbekistan in the “war on terror” in 2001, the US got a powerful and centrally-located regional ally. The partnership came to an abrupt end after the US angered the Uzbeks by calling for an independent investigation into the May violence in Andijan.

Washington’s relationship with Uzbekistan is now at an all-time low, after the latter called for an immediate withdrawal of US forces from the Khanabad airbase in the south of the country.

The departure of American forces from Uzbekistan could be seen as leaving something of a void for US interests in Central Asia, a region where Russia, China and Iran are also important players.

In this changed situation, Turkmenistan might certainly begin to look like a more attractive option, not least because of its long borders with Afghanistan and Iran.

Speculation about the possibility that the Khanabad base would be replaced by a Turkmen one has been fuelled by the visits a number of senior US officials have paid to the country in recent months.

On August 23, the head of US Central Command, General John Abizaid, visited Ashgabat where he met Turkmenbashi - an honour not bestowed on every visitor, even of high rank. On October 5, Robert Joseph, Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, also met the president to discuss cooperation in the global “war on terror”.

Much of the speculation revolves around an airbase in the southern city of Mary, conveniently close to Afghanistan.

According to a Turkmen defence ministry source who asked not to be named, “The Pentagon decided that it made sense not to put bases, in the old sense, in Central Asia but instead to set up mobile military support points, which are divided into various categories…. A category-two support point is to be stationed at Mary-2, from where troops can be moved efficiently if the need arises,”.

This same source added, “If an agreement on using Mary-2 is signed, then it will not contain the words 'military base', thus allowing Niyazov to say that Turkmenistan does not station foreign military bases on its territory.”

Remarks in similar vein from other unnamed Turkmen defence sources have appeared in the Russian media, feeding speculative stories there about US intentions in the region.

In an unusual step, Turkmenistan's foreign ministry responded to the Russian reports last month, saying that the country's internationally-recognised status of neutrality meant foreign military bases were out of the question.

US officials have also sought to scotch the rumours. A public affairs officer at the American embassy in Ashgabat, Helen Lovejoy, told the Prague-based broadcaster RFE/RL recently that there had been no negotiations over the possible use of military bases, and the US administration had no such intentions.

The spokesperson added that General Abizaid did not discuss the matter when he met Turkmenbashi, but that the fact of his meeting generated some inaccurate reporting by Russian media.

The US does have a limited arrangement with Turkmenistan - since 2002 there has been an agreement allowing US military transport planes to fly through Turkmen airspace and refuel at the international civilian airport in Ashgabat.

But there is one major objection to a significant expansion in the relationship, and that is Turkmenistan's dire human rights record. While the US may have appeared to rate security considerations higher than human rights when its relationship with Uzbekistan was in good shape, the subsequent demarche over Andijan must make it less desirable than ever to engage with an autocratic leader who has done his best to stamp out civil liberties.

The media feeding-frenzy in Russia does seem to reflect some genuine concern in Moscow. In August, Turkmenistan announced it was withdrawing almost completely from the Commonwealth of Independent States, the grouping of former Soviet republics.

The move was seen as a calculated step by the Turkmen leader to create even more distance in his country's already cool diplomatic relations with most of the former Soviet states. And some observers also noted that at least theoretically, it opened up opportunities for Turkmenbashi to reach out to potential new allies.

But that argument can be turned on its head, and other observers think that talking about an American base is just part of a survival strategy in which the Turkmen president attempts to juggle with a number of foreign policy directions at the same time.

"Niyazov is not against using a superpower to prolong his political existence," said a former senior diplomat in Turkmenistan, who did not want to be named.

This source believes the idea of a base at Mary has certainly been floated. "But believe me," he added, "the bargaining isn't over yet. Niyazov will ask a lot from the US. And by haggling over the terms, he will drag out the process as long as possible, citing the negative political reactions he's getting from Russia, Iran and Uzbekistan.

“Our president is very cunning and likes to make other politicians look stupid. As long as there is geopolitical competition in the region, Niyazov will stay in power - for a long time to come. Neither money nor other economic benefits play any role for him now: His interest is in increasing his political longevity.”

US State Secretary Condoleezza Rice signaled her country's desire to bolster its friendships in Central Asia when she visited Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan and Tajikistan this week. In what seemed a mute statement of current thinking in Washington, she omitted to visit either Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan.