Election Heats Up in Balkh

Abdul Latif Sahak

IWPR-trained reporter

Thursday, 6 August, 2009

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In this bustling metropolis of Afghanistan’s north, one face is conspicuously absent from the plethora of presidential election campaign posters.



President Hamed Karzai, who beams down from virtually every lamp post in Kabul, can be seen only on a few tall buildings in Mazar-e-Sharif. Elsewhere, large banners, posters and billboards feature his chief rival, Abdullah Abdullah, face-to-face with the powerful governor of Balkh province, Atta Mohammad Noor.



Atta has ruled Balkh for the past four years, and has been given extraordinary leeway by the central government. In Balkh, his writ is absolute. He was once Karzai’s ally and supporter, but over the past six months all pretence of friendship, or even civility, has vanished. Instead, Atta is openly campaigning for Abdullah, and has defied all attempts from the centre to curb his authority.



“Atta considers himself to be a king,” said Gul Mir, a shopkeeper in the centre of town. “He does not listen to the central government. Balkh is now an independent province, and Atta is its president as well as its governor.”



Things have reached a point where worried residents are beginning to speculate about the possibility of a violent conflict.



“There is a very bad atmosphere in Mazar right now,” said Gul Mir. “You feel that at any moment that open fighting could start between Atta’s gunmen and those from other factions.”



Balkh, in the far north on the border with Uzbekistan, is a key province for the election that takes place on August 20. Its cities and villages contain a cross section of Afghanistan’s ethnic groups and political factions, and more than one government has been toppled because of deals and betrayals originating in Balkh.



The communist-backed regime of Najibullah owed its final collapse to a last-minute side-switching by General Abdul Rashid Dostum, who deserted the government and joined the rebel mujaheddin. The Taleban were sent packing when Dostum, among others, came back to Balkh from exile in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and surrounding countries.



“Balkh will determine the destiny of Afghanistan,” said Hajji Mohammad Mohaqeq, leader of the Hezb-e-Wahdat faction and a prominent parliamentarian. Mohaqeq, who was speaking on a recent campaign tour, is supporting Karzai, a source of some tension between him and Atta.



Three major political factions are in precarious balance in Balkh: Jamiat-e-Islami, headed by former president Burhanuddin Rabbani, which is dominated by Tajiks; Junbish-e-Milli, led by Dostum and made up largely of Uzbeks; and Hezb-e-Wahdat, Mohaqeq’s party, which is associated with the Hazara ethnic minority.



Mohaqeq and Dostum both pledged their support for Karzai early on, although there are some signs that Junbish is starting to waver.



Atta has problems with both Mohaqeq and Dostum stretching back years but the real cause of the souring of his relationship with Karzai, say insiders, is the president’s choice of running mate.



“The main reason for the dispute between Karzai and Atta is the nomination of Marshal [Mohammad Qasim] Fahim,” said Shamsulhaq Naseri, a former jihadi commander who said he had tried to smooth over the rift.



Fahim has been picked as Karzai’s first vice president, a choice that has provoked some concern among the international community. Fahim, a former defence minister, has been linked with alleged human rights abuses during Afghanistan’s bitter civil war, and many see his return to power as a bad sign for Afghanistan. Atta’s rift with Fahim is old and deep, although the exact reasons are murky.



There were strong and persistent rumours, denied by both Karzai’s camp and Atta’s office, that the president had tried to sack Atta. But few are in doubt that Karzai would have a hard time ejecting the governor from his power base at the moment.



Shortly after Atta announced his support for Abdullah, an order arrived from Kabul removing 27 police officers, mostly Jamiat-e-Islami party members, from their posts. Atta and Abdullah are both closely associated with Jamiat. The order cited an article in the election law prohibiting government employees from campaigning for political figures. The police, according to Kabul, had been openly supporting Abdullah.



One police officer from Balkh, who did not want to be named, said that when the message arrived from the ministry of the interior, Atta held a meeting with his loyalists to decide how to respond. Their decision was to defy the order – all 27 police officers are still in their posts. The officer said the 27 included the head of the criminal investigation department and the head of the traffic police. Nevertheless, according to numerous eyewitnesses, they continue to enjoy the privileges of office and still go to their workplace every day.



“The central government has not pursued this case,” said the officer. “They are trying to save face. If they tried to force these officers out, they would not be able to do it. There would be a fight.”



Sardar Mohammad Sultani, the Balkh police chief, denied there was a problem between the province and central government. He insisted that the ministry’s order had been implemented.



Failing in their attempt to rein in Atta using the police, say observers, the central government has turned to other means to curb the governor’s excessive power.



According to political analyst Alam Zeb Ibrahimzai, the Karzai team has brought a new campaign manager into Balkh - Eashan Khaled, a former ally and current foe of Atta.



Khaled is a controversial figure in Balkh. A former security chief for Atta, he fell out with the governor, and has been effectively banned from the city for the past eight months.



But now he is back, with the assistance of Fahim, as a Karzai campaign chief.



“This is a warning to Atta,” said Ibrahimzai. “Atta knows very well what Khaled is capable of.”



If so, it is a warning that Atta is heeding. One city official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told IWPR that Atta had restricted his movements since the return of Khaled.



“He has increased the number of his bodyguards, and changes his route to the governor’s office frequently,” said the official.



Ibrahimzai says that this could be the beginning of the end for Atta. “Karzai and Fahim made Atta and they can break him,” said the analyst.



If Karzai fails in his re-election bid, however, Atta’s fortunes could take a whole new turn.



Abdul Latif Sahak is an IWPR trainee in Mazar-e-Sharif.