Governorship elections: A tale of uncertainties

As Nigerians go to the polls in Tuesday’s gubernatorial election, the wind of uncertainty is blowing strongly in the different political parties. Unlike in the past, when the power of incumbency was almost certain to secure victory for some contestants, the voting pattern that has emerged from the general elections so far has made this unpredictable.

In this analysis, the Nigerian Election News Report examines factors that will affect the outcome of the election:

To begin with, the new consciousness in the electorate to ensure that their votes count will work against those politicians who in the past capitalised on the indifference of the electorate to manipulate the process to their advantage.

The trend of voting for the personality rather than the party is a factor that will come into play in the gubernatorial election. This worked for the PDP in the presidential election in which the party won states known to be opposition strongholds, based on the fact that they voted for Jonathan rather than the PDP.

For the PDP to imagine for instance that its candidate will win in Lagos state based on the party’s performance in the presidential election will be a tall dream. The same goes for other states in the south west where the PDP did well. This is equally true for some states in the north.

Analysts are of the view that the sporadic violence that trailed the presidential election in some northern states will discourage voters from coming out to vote for their candidates, especially those of the PDP, which is alleged to have rigged the presidential election.

The quest for regime change is also a strong factor to reckon with. Some political parties desire change so much in some states that they are going into all forms of alliances to eject the incumbent from the government house.

The age old saying that a house divided against itself shall not stand will manifest strongly during this round of the general elections. Some parties are going into the contest in the midst of intra-party crisis and divisions, not on matters of principles but around personalities in the parties. They can only leave loopholes for the opposition to plunder their votes. There will be no gubernatorial election next Tuesday in Kaduna and Bauchi States, where sporadic violence broke out after last Saturday’s presidential election.

INEC Chairman, Professor Attahiru Jega, announced at a press conference in Abuja on Thursday, that the governorship election in the two states would hold on the 28th of April, instead of the earlier scheduled date of the 26th for all gubernatorial and State Houses of Assembly elections.

The volatile situation in the states was cited for the shift.

Concerned individuals and groups, including the Independent Election Monitoring Group (IEMG) had earlier called for the postponement of elections in states affected by post-election violence.

IEMG National Coordinator, Barrister Festus Okoye, said postponement was a wise way of avoiding further breakdown of law and order.

Jega also dismissed reports that members of the Youth Service Corps had decided to withdraw their services as electoral officers.

He said the false reports were masterminded by dubious individuals who used a paid message platform to spread the rumour.