Kyrgyz Leader Triggers Election Talk
President’s announcement that he plans to go for a second term sparks debate on poll date.
Kyrgyz Leader Triggers Election Talk
President’s announcement that he plans to go for a second term sparks debate on poll date.
At a February 11 press conference – the first Bakiev had given in two years – he made his intentions plain.
“I will give a direct response to a direct question. Yes, I will stand in the presidential election. The constitution gives me a right to stand for a second term and I intend to exercise this right,” he said.
The president also made a public reference to the uncertainty that surrounds the correct date for the election. At the moment some politicians – mainly from the opposition – say the poll should properly be held this coming October, while others say the constitutional position is that it falls a year later.
“As far as I know, the next presidential election should be held in 2010,” said Bakiev. “But what will the Constitutional Court say on this? As guarantor of the constitution, I will submit to the decision of the Constitutional Court.”
The Kyrgyz constitution was amended by referendum in October 2007, with one key change to the wording on the presidential term in office, so that whereas before the head of state served four years and then continued until the end of the October of his fifth year, now the document states simply, “The president is elected for five years.”
That left Bakiev’s position as the incumbent unclear. Since the 2003 constitution was in force when he was elected, is he supposed to serve for four years and four months, counting from the July 2005 ballot to the first October of his fifth year, in other words in 2009? Or does the new five-year term apply to him retroactively?
Opposition politicians are worried that the administration will apply the latter interpretation, meaning that no election is needed until 2010. They have acted to preempt such a move by raising the issue in public. One group, the Social Democrats, is drafting a formal request to the Constitutional Court to clarify the date.
“He is legally obliged to run for election this year,” the party’s chairman Almazbek Atambaev told IWPR. “The presidential election was held under the old constitution… When one member of parliament said recently that the current constitution should be used as a basis, it was a mistake. We elected the president for a specific term, lasting until October 2009.”
Arguments about the constitution and election dates are nothing new in Kyrgyzstan.
Bakiev’s predecessor Askar Akaev served for two terms after his election in 1991, but before he was ousted in a popular uprising in March 2005, many believed he was about to seek a third term. The Constitutional Court laid the foundations for this in a 1999 ruling that Akaev’s real first term was the one that began in 1995; the first one did not count because it started before Kyrgyzstan had passed its first post-independence constitution.
Even as the debate around the poll date continues, the election race has started, to all intents and purposes.
Many analysts saw the signs last month, when Bakiev carried out a radical shake-up of the cabinet and also of his own presidential office. Part of the reason was clearly to put together a stronger team to address the manifold consequences of the international financial crisis as it plays out in Kyrgyzstan. But the appointment, in particular, of former Bishkek mayor Daniyar Usenov as head of the presidential administration was seen as a move to get the right man in place to manage a future election campaign. (See Whirlwind Cabinet Changes in Kyrgyzstan, RCA No. 563, 23-Jan-09.)
While it is opposition politicians who are insisting that Bakiev should not be allowed to stay on until 2010 – a year longer than they believe he is due – it could be argued that they, not the president, have most to lose from an election within the next year.
Although the opposition formed the broadest anti-government coalition yet, the United People’s Movement, in December, many believe it is still not in shape to fight an election, particularly if the disparate parties need to identify and rally behind a single strong challenger to Bakiev. In any case, many of the leading politicians are otherwise occupied, fighting criminal charges they say are a deliberate attempt to sap the opposition of its strength. (See Kyrgyzstan: Political Confrontation Intensifies, RCA No. 562, 17-Jan-09.)
“The opposition will have something of a chance in the presidential election only if it puts forward a single leader,” political analyst Marat Kazakpaev told the Bishkek Press Club in a recent interview. “If no consolidation takes place, the president will definitely have no serious rival.”
To date, only Atambaev has signaled his readiness to stand against Bakiev.
“A party that intends to win an election must prepare for it, and prepare its candidates. We have candidates, and as head of the party, I am ready to run for the presidency,” he told IWPR, adding, “However, circumstances will dictate whether we nominate one or several candidates from the opposition. We have yet to agree on that.”
The opposition is also poorly resourced, whereas Bakiev – despite his government’s economic woes – has received a significant windfall in the shape of funding from Moscow.
During a visit to Moscow in early February, Bakiev secured a 300 million US dollar loan to be used to support the government budget, plus a pledge of 1.7 billion dollars in investment in the Kyrgyz energy industry. In addition, Moscow agreed to write off 180 million dollars of Kyrgyz debt in return for a 48 per cent stake in a defence-industry factory, and offered additional assistance worth 150 million dollars.
The price, according to many analysts, was a statement by the Kyrgyz leader that the United States military airbase near Bishkek was to close down, although Bakiev and the Russians strenuously denied any connection between the two announcements. (For a report on the deal, see Kyrgyzstan: How Imminent is US Base Closure?, RCA No. 565, 5-Feb-09.)
“With help from Moscow, Bakiev has acquired economic and political backing, which relates to the presidential election and the stability of the current administration,” said political analyst Mars Sariev.
The People’s Revolutionary Movement of Kyrgyzstan, an opposition group which is a part of the United People’s movement, issues a statement on February 16 saying that the financial deal “must be seen as a sign that Russia will support Kurmanbek Bakiev during the forthcoming presidential election”.
With such advantages at his disposal, the president is in a position to pick and choose when the best time to call an election would be. Even if he reserves the right to wait until 2010, he might want to call an early election before the economic situation gets even worse and prompts anti-government rallies, or before his opponents have time to organise.
According to Azimbek Beknazarov, a leading opposition figure who belongs to the Revolutionary Movement of Kyrgyzstan, “By indicating his intention to run for a second term, Bakiev has thrown out a challenge to his opponents to get ready, and made it clear to others [possible candidates from his own circle] that they should keep a low profile. The president wants it to be unexpected, so that neither the opposition nor other political forces have time to prepare for the election.”
Murat Juraev, a Social Democratic member of parliament, believes the Constitutional Court will bow to any election date the administration chooses.
“In Kyrgyzstan, everything depends upon the will of God – what the political situation is like, how the crisis affects people’s livelihoods, and what the weather is like,” he said. “All these factors influence people’s mood, so if people are in a negative mood, the Constitutional Court will take the appropriate decision and the election will be postponed for a year.”
Bakiev has insisted he will abide by the court’s decision. “There will be no manipulation of the Kyrgyz constitution,” he said at the February 11 press conference. “I can guarantee that.”
Anara Yusupova is a pseudonym used by a journalist based in Bishkek.
