Kyrgyzstan: Toeing Moscow's Line?

The new Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiev was bowing to Russian pressure when he suggested that the United States may close its airbase in Kyrgyzstan, analysts say.

The base at Manas airport, 30 kilometres from the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, was opened in 2001 and has been used as a base for military flights into Afghanistan by the US and its Coalition allies.

Speaking on July 11, at the first press conference since winning an overwhelming election victory the previous day, Bakiev said that Afghanistan was now stable enough to allow a re-evaluation of US military activity in the region.

“Presidential elections have taken place [in Afghanistan], and preparations for parliamentary elections are under way. So quite naturally, there is an issue about the terms of the anti-terrorist Coalition base located in Kyrgyzstan,” said Bakiev.

But developments in Afghanistan may not be the only reason for Bakiev’s reluctance to continue hosting US military forces. Instead, analysts believe Russia may be reasserting its claim to be the regional leader in Central Asia. As long ago as 2003, in a clear sign that they were concerned at the American presence, the Russians set up their own airbase in Kant, just a few km away from the US one.

Now it looks like it’s the Russians, not the Americans, who will be staying for the long term.

On the same day as Bakiev gave his press conference, Apas Jumagulov, the Kyrgyz ambassador in Moscow, told journalists there that the US base at Manas would be closed down, “I don’t think it will happen today or tomorrow, but it will happen gradually.”

But he made it clear that Russia’s base was there to stay. “Kant is one of the key bases of the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States], and cooperation [with Russia] is developing successfully... [The Russian and US bases] should not be opposed or set against each other in any way. The fact that the Russian Federation has a base in Kyrgyzstan is strategically the correct course. It will continue to develop in the future,” the ambassador said.

Bakiev’s election as Kyrgyz leader is a direct result of the March popular revolution that swept President Askar Akaev from power. In the immediate aftermath, Moscow was concerned that a longstanding ally had been removed in what it viewed as a continuation of the wave of revolutions by pro-western forces first in Georgia and then in Ukraine.

Since then, Bakiev – in the role of acting president – appears to have worked hard to patch things up with the Kremlin.

Speculation that Kyrgyz-Russian relations were back on track intensified when Vladimir Mikhailov, commander-in-chief of the Russian air force, announced on July 13 that Russia was planning to double its forces at the Kant base.

Bakiev’s remarks about the need to rethink the US presence in his country were in line with recommendations made earlier in July by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, a regional security grouping that brings the Kyrgyz together with their Uzbek, Kazak and Tajik neighbours and two big regional powers, Russia and China.

The SCO’s July 5 communique said that because the US-led Coalition had ended “active military phase” of operations in Afghanistan, there was now a need “for relevant members of the anti-terror coalition to set final dates for the temporary use of… infrastructure and the stationing of military contingents on the territory of SCO member countries”.

In part at least, the statement mirrored the views of another Central Asian state, Uzbekistan, which appeared very happy to have a US base near the southern city of Karshi until the American government started pressing for an investigation into the May 13 violent suppression of a protest meeting in Andijan. Since then, the Uzbeks have placed restrictions on US flights at the base.

Muratbek Imanaliev, a former foreign minister who is now a professor at the Bishkek-based American University in Central Asia, believes that Bakiev’s signature on the SCO declaration was indicative of “a certain move towards Russia”.

“Bakiev was probably not the author of this article of the declaration, he simply sided with the other SCO heads, but he thus accentuated attention on Russian-Kyrgyz relations,” Imanaliev told IWPR.

Political analyst Nur Omarov believes that not only Russia, but also China and Uzbekistan played an important role in drafting the SCO declaration.

“This was a forced act on Kyrgyzstan’s part. The country depends geopolitically on Russia and China, and financially on the US. When Bakiev signed the declaration, he was concerned he might compromise Kyrgyzstan’s relations with America, but he did not want to look like a black sheep among the SCO leaders,” said Omarov.

However, Omarov is certain the Americans will not be leaving imminently. “Bearing in mind the strengthened position of the US in this region, the new Kyrgyz leadership will probably find mechanisms to appease the neighbouring countries and retain the American base. Neither Russia nor China has the means to remove the American base, so Kyrgyzstan will have the last word in any case,” he said.

This view is supported by the fact that after Bakiev signed the declaration, his allies in the transitional Kyrgyz government immediately tried to smooth over potential threats to the relationship with Washington.

On July 6, the acting foreign minister Roza Otunbaeva told journalists, “We want to know how the changing situation in Afghanistan will influence the terms under which Coalition military bases are stationed in countries in the Central Asian region.”

Otunbaeva went on to say that the Kyrgyz-US agreement on the airbase had “no time-limit”, and added, “Kyrgyz-American cooperation should not just be organised around the airbase. Our relations will continue to develop regardless of the issue of the base.”

Felix Kulov, a leading Kyrgyz politician who stepped down from as a presidential candidate to support Bakiev, was also quick to explain the government’s position. In an interview with the newspaper Vremya Novostei, he said, “I do not see anything bad about the statement at the SCO summit. The question was merely raised about the terms of withdrawing bases, not about reviewing relations with the US. No one is demanding that the issue of the bases be solved quickly.”

Bolotbek Shamshiev, an advisor to Bakiev, insisted that the SCO statement was overblown by the media. “Kyrgyzstan is not changing its policies towards the US,” he said. “Furthermore, the base is not in the way at all. Bakiev is not saying that the base must be removed immediately.”

However, Miroslav Niyazov, head of the Kyrgyzstan Security Council, seemed to take a more hawkish line, “All the decisions on the military base were made by the former regime, and it cannot be ruled out that the new regime will undertake a fresh examination of these agreements.”

One high-ranking official told IWPR on condition of anonymity that despite pressure to conform to the views of bigger and more powerful neighbours, Kyrgyzstan’s new rulers were keen to stay friends with Washington.

“Enormous pressure is being put on us, and we are being forced to support statements about withdrawing the American base against our will,” said the official.

“But a statement is one thing, and reality is another. We will do everything to avoid spoiling relations with America.” Leila Saralieva is an independent journalist in Bishkek