Kyrgyzstan's Lacklustre Election Campaign

As Kyrgyzstan heads for an election in which the incumbent president Kurmanbek Bakiev faces five challengers, one might have expected campaigning to be lively and robust. In reality, activity has been muted so far, with little posturing by candidates and no shock announcements, scandals or street demonstrations to engage public attention.

The election date, July 23, was announced only three months ago, after an extended debate over whether the ballot was due this year or next. (For more on this, see Surprise Early Polls for Kyrgyzstan, RCA No. 570, 20-Mar-09.) That left the opposition, in particular, little time to get into gear and identify a challenger.

Of the six candidates, Bakiev is a strong contender as he runs for a second term. He was elected in July 2005 after playing a leading role in a popular uprising which led to the then head of state, Askar Akaev, leaving the country in March that year.

Bakiev’s major opponent is Social Democratic Party leader Almazbek Atambaev, selected by the main opposition bloc, the United People’s Movement, as its sole candidate.

Atambaev served as prime minister in 2007 at a time when Bakiev was trying to coopt opposition members. Some in the opposition have held this against him, and unhappiness over his selection as the UPM’s sole the issue prompted Ak Shumkar party leader Temir Sariev to break ranks and stand for election himself. (For a report on this, see Kyrgyz Opposition Unity Crumbles, RCA No. 576, 09-May-09.)

The others on the list of candidates are Toktaim Umetalieva, who heads the Association of Non-Commercial and Non-Government Organisations; Jenishbek Nazaraliev, a high-profile doctor specialising in treating drug users; and Nurlan Motuev, who heads the Joomart Patriotic Movement, is co-leader of the Kyrgyz Muslim Union, and defied the authorities by taking control of a coal mine and running it for a year in 2006-07, for which he was later tried but not convicted.

With the incumbent determined to stay in power and the opposition showing unusual cohesion in facing up to him, many observers were expecting a turbulent campaign punctuated by the mass demonstrations that were a feature of Bakiev’s early years in office. Yet so far campaigning on all sides has been low-key.

A media-watcher who asked to remain anonymous said Atambaev, as Bakiev’s main opponent, was not putting up much of a fight.

“His statements to date don’t contain basic messages,” said the analyst. “It’s hard to say what message Atambaev stands for. For instance, Nazaraliev offers a new [Kyrgyz national] flag and 100,000 soms for each family. Sariev’s message is that he’s steadfast.”

Bakiev has been more active, albeit in his capacity as head of state rather than as an election candidate. Since the election race official began, he has attended a number of opening ceremonies for new buildings around the country, during which he chatted to the locals.

Such visits have drawn fire from rights activists as well as opposition members, who suspect Bakiev he is exploiting official business for political gain.

Human rights groups even brought a case before the Constitutional Court seeking Bakiev’s temporarily removal as president for the duration of the campaign, so as to level the playing field for other candidates. The court rejected this on June 30, saying Bakiev’s activities did not constitute a breach of voters’ rights.

The president remains visible in the media in a way his rivals are not. According to the Institution of the Media Commissioner, a non-government watchdog, television channels body carried only Bakiev’s election broadcasts for the first week of campaigning.

Atambaev and Nazaraliev have both complained that the owners of billboards are refusing to sell them space for election posters.

Samat Borubaev, a member of the Central Electoral Committee, CEC, who heads a special team coordinating with the candidates, says all of them have been assigned equal amounts of airtime. But he says that since they are allowed to buy extra advertising, their different levels of visibility are directly related to the size of their war-chests.

“Since June 18, the first day of the campaign, we have been providing ten minutes airtime a day to the candidates, which means each one has 50 seconds in Russian and [another 50 seconds] in Kyrgyz every day,” said Borubaev. “In addition, candidates will each get 15 minutes on TV to present their election programmes, free of charge. There are also roundtable and debate shows, which are likewise free.”

On July 2, the CEC published details of each candidate’s electoral funds, showing that Bakiev had 35 million soms – over 800,000 US dollars – and had spent 14 million soms to date, whereas Atambaev had four million of which he had spent half already. The other candidates had about half a million soms each.

Media expert Igor Shestakov thinks it is natural that Bakiev is seen on TV more often than other candidates.

“That’s the scenario when an incumbent head of state is seeking re-election,” he said.

Shestakov blames the short election deadline for forcing candidates to reduce their ambitions, saying “the time pressure has made all of them fix on the essential points of their campaigns without setting them out [in full], expanding on them and doing PR work. Instead, they’ve been focusing on meeting the voters at constituency level.”

The electorate has become apolitical and has rather limited horizons these days, according to Shestakov.

“Voter demands have become more specific,” he said. “If a candidate promises to fix their day-to-day problems, say by repairing a road or improving the infrastructure, that will be enough for them.”

The lack of time has prevented candidates from seeking advice from election specialists abroad. The campaign teams of various candidates, including both Bakiev and Atambaev, said they were working on their own.

A political strategist well acquainted with the methods used by Bakiev’s campaign team told IWPR that foreign consultants had not been hired. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the general approach seemed to be, “Why bend over backwards when he’s going to win anyway?”

Shestakov noted one slight sign of technological progress in this election– some candidates, particularly Nazaraliev – are using the internet to deliver their campaign messages.

“It’s a landmark, since everything used to be based solely on TV, radio and the press,” he said.

Shestakov added, however, that since internet use in Kyrgyzstan is mainly urban while voter turnout tends to be higher in rural areas, the new medium might not prove very effective way of winning over the electorate.

Azamat Kachiev and Urmatbek Tashmatov are IWPR-trained journalists.