New Tajik Party Seeks Émigré Vote
Opposition figure is promising a “violet revolution”, but no one seems convinced.
New Tajik Party Seeks Émigré Vote
Opposition figure is promising a “violet revolution”, but no one seems convinced.
A new Tajik political movement based in Moscow has threatened to stage a Kyrgyz-style revolution if President Imomali Rahmonov does not step down. Analysts and experts interviewed by IWPR say that in reality, the émigré group poses little risk to the Tajik administration since it will find it hard to make any inroads on the domestic political scene.
Called Vatandor (Patriot), the party was founded by journalist Dodojon Atovulloev, a harsh critic of the government who was forced to flee from Tajikistan to Russia in the early Nineties. Since then he has been chief editor of the newspaper Charogi Ruz, a newspaper which is published abroad but smuggled clandestinely into Tajikistan, and which regularly attacks the Rahmonov government.
According to Atovulloev, Vatandor includes a number of well-known figures including at least one former prime minister of Tajikistan and several ex-members of parliament, and came into being after two years of work and a series of meetings in foreign capitals.
The party says it will bring hundreds of thousands of people out onto the streets of Tajik cities and lead a “violet revolution” – the term a conscious reference to regime changes in other former Soviet republics such as the “rose revolution” in Georgia and nearer home, Kyrgyzstan’s “tulip revolution” which ousted President Askar Akaev in March 2005.
Vatandor is promising that President Rahmonov will be guaranteed immunity if he agrees to step down voluntarily. But the prospect of this happening seems remote, since the party is highly unlikely to be allowed to organise and meet publicly in Tajikistan.
The movement hopes to capitalise on its location abroad by recruiting support among Tajik migrants working in Russia and elsewhere.
Government figures suggest there are around 450,000 Tajik citizens working outside the country, 80 per cent of them under 40. Many analysts believe the true figure is considerably higher, while Atovulloev puts the total nearer 1.5 million. A recent World Bank study indicated that the money these migrants send home contributes more than 10 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Yet when IWPR interviewed Tajik migrants in Russia, few knew anything about the new party, or expressed enthusiasm for the idea of a revolution.
“We haven’t heard of this party,” said one man, Sorbon Niazov. “We don’t need rallies, reforms or new parties. It’s hard for us to find work in our country with the current regime, but if there’s a new one, what’s the guarantee that life will get any better? We’ve only just recovered from the [1992-97 civil] war, and our families need to live peacefully in their homeland without any revolutions.”
Bakhtier, a 25-year-old who works in a Moscow firm making headstones, said he was not interested in learning more about Vatandor.
“I don’t believe that Tajik movements or parties set up in Russia have any prospect of winning support among labour migrants,” he said. “I don’t think that they should construct their plans to win power on our bones, or using us as cover. We have a hard enough time already.”
Back in Tajikistan, Khurshedi Atovullo, chief editor of the Faraj newspaper, recalled that opposition groups have toyed with the idea of creating a labour migrant party for some time.
“We have written several articles about the need to set up a party of labour migrants, as other forces could make of use them,” he said. “Now this opportunity has been grasped by Atovulloev.”
Political analyst Khodi Abdujabbor doubts Tajikistan is ready for a popular revolution along the lines of those seen in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. “The conditions for revolution or domestic political change aren’t there,” he told IWPR.
Another analyst, Parviz Mullojonov, agreed that revolution is unlikely in the immediate future, although he added that underlying problems such as poverty meant political stability was at risk. “Unless social and economic problems are solved in the near future, for the next five or six years there will still be a risk of a popular revolt and the emergence of revolutionary situations,” he said.
However, Mullojonov doubts Atovulloev is the right man to lead anti-government protests. “The statements that Atovulloev, the eternal oppositionist, make amount to no more than self-promotion,” he said. “He won’t win much support inside the country.”
Rahmonov’s governing People’s Democratic Party was also dismissive of the new opposition force, with party chief-of-staff Muso Asozoda describing it as “more bluff from Atovulloev”.
Muhiddin Kabiri, who heads the Islamic Revival Party, the major opposition party in Tajikistan, was sceptical about Vatandor’s chances.
“I don’t think a party or movement created and located abroad is likely to have much influence inside Tajikistan,” he told IWPR. “Even those parties that function legally in the country find it difficult to influence the domestic political process.”
Kabiri also ruled out the possibility of a revolution, saying, “There were major political figures behind the revolutions in Georgia or in Ukraine. In the case of Atovulloev, we haven’t seen this happening yet. He alone speaks on behalf of Vatandor, and we are not seeing any other names.”
The deputy head of the smaller Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Shokirjon Hakimov, offered a more encouraging view. In an interview with IWPR, he said groups like Vatandor were forced to form outside the country because political parties in Tajikistan were subject to many restrictions.
Hakimov said Atovulloev’s group could yet tap into a vein of discontent in Tajikistan as well as among the migrants. “There are factors that point to social upheaval – the low standard of living [in Tajikistan], recent [more restrictive] changes to the law on labour migrants in Russia, regional favouritism in the Tajik government, and the sense of alienation from political life,” he said.
Nafisa Pisaredzheva is an IWPR contributor in Dushanbe.
Called Vatandor (Patriot), the party was founded by journalist Dodojon Atovulloev, a harsh critic of the government who was forced to flee from Tajikistan to Russia in the early Nineties. Since then he has been chief editor of the newspaper Charogi Ruz, a newspaper which is published abroad but smuggled clandestinely into Tajikistan, and which regularly attacks the Rahmonov government.
According to Atovulloev, Vatandor includes a number of well-known figures including at least one former prime minister of Tajikistan and several ex-members of parliament, and came into being after two years of work and a series of meetings in foreign capitals.
The party says it will bring hundreds of thousands of people out onto the streets of Tajik cities and lead a “violet revolution” – the term a conscious reference to regime changes in other former Soviet republics such as the “rose revolution” in Georgia and nearer home, Kyrgyzstan’s “tulip revolution” which ousted President Askar Akaev in March 2005.
Vatandor is promising that President Rahmonov will be guaranteed immunity if he agrees to step down voluntarily. But the prospect of this happening seems remote, since the party is highly unlikely to be allowed to organise and meet publicly in Tajikistan.
The movement hopes to capitalise on its location abroad by recruiting support among Tajik migrants working in Russia and elsewhere.
Government figures suggest there are around 450,000 Tajik citizens working outside the country, 80 per cent of them under 40. Many analysts believe the true figure is considerably higher, while Atovulloev puts the total nearer 1.5 million. A recent World Bank study indicated that the money these migrants send home contributes more than 10 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Yet when IWPR interviewed Tajik migrants in Russia, few knew anything about the new party, or expressed enthusiasm for the idea of a revolution.
“We haven’t heard of this party,” said one man, Sorbon Niazov. “We don’t need rallies, reforms or new parties. It’s hard for us to find work in our country with the current regime, but if there’s a new one, what’s the guarantee that life will get any better? We’ve only just recovered from the [1992-97 civil] war, and our families need to live peacefully in their homeland without any revolutions.”
Bakhtier, a 25-year-old who works in a Moscow firm making headstones, said he was not interested in learning more about Vatandor.
“I don’t believe that Tajik movements or parties set up in Russia have any prospect of winning support among labour migrants,” he said. “I don’t think that they should construct their plans to win power on our bones, or using us as cover. We have a hard enough time already.”
Back in Tajikistan, Khurshedi Atovullo, chief editor of the Faraj newspaper, recalled that opposition groups have toyed with the idea of creating a labour migrant party for some time.
“We have written several articles about the need to set up a party of labour migrants, as other forces could make of use them,” he said. “Now this opportunity has been grasped by Atovulloev.”
Political analyst Khodi Abdujabbor doubts Tajikistan is ready for a popular revolution along the lines of those seen in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. “The conditions for revolution or domestic political change aren’t there,” he told IWPR.
Another analyst, Parviz Mullojonov, agreed that revolution is unlikely in the immediate future, although he added that underlying problems such as poverty meant political stability was at risk. “Unless social and economic problems are solved in the near future, for the next five or six years there will still be a risk of a popular revolt and the emergence of revolutionary situations,” he said.
However, Mullojonov doubts Atovulloev is the right man to lead anti-government protests. “The statements that Atovulloev, the eternal oppositionist, make amount to no more than self-promotion,” he said. “He won’t win much support inside the country.”
Rahmonov’s governing People’s Democratic Party was also dismissive of the new opposition force, with party chief-of-staff Muso Asozoda describing it as “more bluff from Atovulloev”.
Muhiddin Kabiri, who heads the Islamic Revival Party, the major opposition party in Tajikistan, was sceptical about Vatandor’s chances.
“I don’t think a party or movement created and located abroad is likely to have much influence inside Tajikistan,” he told IWPR. “Even those parties that function legally in the country find it difficult to influence the domestic political process.”
Kabiri also ruled out the possibility of a revolution, saying, “There were major political figures behind the revolutions in Georgia or in Ukraine. In the case of Atovulloev, we haven’t seen this happening yet. He alone speaks on behalf of Vatandor, and we are not seeing any other names.”
The deputy head of the smaller Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, Shokirjon Hakimov, offered a more encouraging view. In an interview with IWPR, he said groups like Vatandor were forced to form outside the country because political parties in Tajikistan were subject to many restrictions.
Hakimov said Atovulloev’s group could yet tap into a vein of discontent in Tajikistan as well as among the migrants. “There are factors that point to social upheaval – the low standard of living [in Tajikistan], recent [more restrictive] changes to the law on labour migrants in Russia, regional favouritism in the Tajik government, and the sense of alienation from political life,” he said.
Nafisa Pisaredzheva is an IWPR contributor in Dushanbe.
