Opinion: Negotiations in Baghdad

There is little possibility that the Iraqi government will be formed. This is not an easy task because not only do the winning coalitions have different views for parliament, but they also are jockeying for power and trying secure influential cabinet posts. Our experience after the fall of Saddam's regime tells us that Kurds and Shias are close to each other, even though their ideologies are different, because both were suppressed under the former regime. They both support federalism, except Sadrists, (led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr) who are a strong part of the Shia alliance. The differences between Sunnis and Shias are too large to overcome. A large number of Sunnis still dream that Sunni superiority will return in Iraq. But all of these factors will not guarantee that Kurds and Shias will secure an agreement. We have the example of Ibrahim al-Ja'afari's government: The Kurds accuse him of authoritarianism, ignoring issues such as Kirkuk and maintain that he has not taken Kurdish views into consideration. Sardists supported Ja'afari and were successful in nominating him for the prime minister's post. Kurds prefer Adel Abdul-Mehdi to take the post. Kurds want (former prime minister) Ayad Allawi to participate in the government, which has created tensions between Kurds and Shias, as Sadrists in the Shia alliance don't want Allawi to hold any post in the next government. In these negotiations there are possibilities that new coalitions will emerge and others will dissolve, especially if the slates can not pave the way for an agreement.