Political Uncertainty Continues

A new round of talks between Iraq's top candidate for prime minister and Kurdish leaders has so far failed to produce an agreement on a coalition government.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari, of the Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance list, spent two days in Iraqi Kurdistan shuttling between meetings with Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP, leader Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK, The two Kurdish leaders are now meeting with each other to consider their response.

Rada al-Khafaji, a member of the United Iraqi Alliance, said Jaafari's trip was part of the Shia bloc's desire to form a government based on consensus with other leading parties.

"We need to be in accord with all, otherwise we will face [difficulties]," she said.

The United Iraqi Alliance won 140 seats in the National Assembly, falling short of the two-thirds majority it would have needed to secure the prime minister’s post for Jaafari without consultation. The alliance is led by religious parties and backed by Iraq's top Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

The Kurdish Alliance list, led by the KDP and PUK, is the next biggest grouping, holding 77 seats after picking up an extra two seats in a new alliance with a smaller Kurdish party. The Iraqi List, led by interim prime minister Ayad Allawi, has the third largest representation in the assembly, with 40 seats.

The 275-member National Assembly is charged with drafting the country's new constitution, as well as choosing a president and two deputies from among its members. Those three leaders will then nominate a prime minister who will go before the assembly for approval.

An agreement on the key cabinet posts must be reached before the new government can be named, and as more than a month has passed since the January 30 election, Iraqis are expressing frustration as negotiations drag on.

Teaming up with the largely secular Kurdish list would be the easiest way for the Shia alliance to achieve the necessary votes for Jaafari, in terms of sheer numbers. However, the two sides disagree on several key issues, including the role that religion should play in the new constitution.

Other sticking points include the Kurdish desire to see the oil-rich city of Kirkuk become part of the Kurdish-controlled area, as well as demands that the region’s autonomous status should be laid down in the constitution. Kurds have administered their own affairs since their region fell out of Saddam Hussein's control after the 1991 Gulf War.

The alliance is holding talks with Allawi's bloc, but his rival bid for the prime minister’s position has complicated negotiations between the two groups. The secular Shia politician is trying to cobble together a coalition of secular parties to offset the Shia alliance's power.

Hussein al-Sadir, a member of the Iraqi List, said the country is going through a sensitive and dangerous stage that requires all of Iraq's ethnic and political groups to cooperate.

The parties are under a tight deadline to form a government and start drafting the constitution. Under the country's interim law, the constitution must be drafted by August 15, in order to go to a public referendum in October.

The law does allow for a six-month extension, but that would delay a general election scheduled for December, and the timetable for the eventual withdrawal of Coalition troops from Iraq.

The Kurds, who like the Shia suffered for decades under Arab Sunni rule, now appear to be the country's next kingmakers. But they are keeping quiet about their pick for prime minister.

The Kurds have made it clear that they expect the presidency to go to PUK leader Talabani, which would be a blow to Iraq's minority Sunnis, who would be locked out of the country's top two leadership posts.

The Sunnis are expected to receive one of two vice-presidents’ posts, a key ministerial position, and possibly also the chairmanship of the National Assembly.

Zaineb Naji is an IWPR trainee journalist in Iraq.