Rugova Illness Raises Fears for Kosovo Talks

Illness could make it impossible for the man who has led Kosovars for the past 16 years to conduct crucial talks on Kosovo’s final status due to start next month.

One month ago, Ibrahim Rugova, Kosovo’s president and leader of the entity’s negotiation team in the crucial series of meetings, announced after a week of medical treatment in the US military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany, that he was suffering from lung cancer.

Two weeks ago, tests by a team of doctors showed Rugova was free from the cancer as a result of chemotherapy. Although the result came as good news, the doctors added that it was an unusual form of cancer that could reappear at any time.

But as patriarchal leader of the largest party in Kosovo, the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, Rugova, who won every election in the territory since 1999, has said he is determined to lead the Albanians in the negotiations despite his health concerns.

Kosovo has been a virtual United Nations protectorate since 1999 when NATO forced out Serbian forces, though Serbia insists it remains an integral part of its territory.

On October 24, the Security Council decided to start status talks following a recommendation by the UN envoy Kai Eide of Norway who has been tasked with evaluating the political situation and judging whether society was ready for such a step.

During the week, Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, said he would appoint a special envoy to manage the negotiations. Martti Ahtisaari, a former Finish president, is expected to take the role and make his first trip to the region in early November.

In mid-September, Rugova nominated the Albanian negotiation team. Apart from himself, it comprises Bajram Kosumi, Kosovo’s prime minister, Nexhat Daci, speaker of the assembly, Hashim Thaci, a former commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army, KLA, and now head of the opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK, and Veton Surroi, head of the opposition ORA party.

However, the group is divided and they have not compiled a serious agenda for the negotiations.

“Our platform is independence, which is a compromise with Serbia as we have not requested unification with Albania,” said Rugova.

But beyond that, the Albanians have yet to put anything on paper. There is also concern that if Rugova’s illness returns, it will affect the whole team’s work.

Lutfi Haziri, the minister of local governance and an LDK member, admits to some worries about the effect of Rugova’s illness.

“If it is impossible for President Rugova to coordinate and lead negotiations for independence that will be an enormous handicap for Kosovo,” he said.

The opposition says Rugova’s health situation ought to rule him out of even trying to assume the role of team leader.

Jakup Krasniqi, a senior PDK official, says the president lacks the energy needed to head up the discussions. “Rugova needs rest, therapy, and spiritual calmness,” said Krasniqi.

Some experts have suggested Rugova should groom an inner circle from his party to take charge of the talks if he is unable to carry on.

But Bujar Bukoshi, a former close associate of Rugova’s and leader of New Party of Kosovo, PREK, disagrees. He says institutional life in Kosovo no longer depends as it once did on Rugova’s actions.

“He is an extraordinary example in the region of an extremely politically passive person who managed to become a symbol,” said Bukoshi.

Shkëlzen Maliqi, a political analyst, takes the same line, saying the negotiations will not depend on any single personality.

“A whole team has to deal with the talks and even in a healthy state Rugova would not be fully engaged,” he said.

Few dispute Rugova’s continuing influence on the Albanian political scene, however.

“Rugova is an icon. He established in Albanian heads the idea of independence, and no one else can have his influence,” said Sabri Hamiti, an LDK deputy.

Mufail Limani, another analyst, also said most Albanians still saw him as a unique, one-off figure.

“Fear of chaos isn’t unreasonable,” he said. “An apocalyptic concern for the leader’s health and their death was seen also in the cases of Enver Hoxha and Tito.”

Under the constitution, the speaker of the assembly is entitled to assume the president’s function in case of illness or death. But some fear a handover could be far from smooth.

“A big problem is the lack of communication between the different generations that only Rugova managed to control,” one member of the LDK presidency told Balkan Crisis Report.

Maliqi also anticipates a fight in the LDK if Rugova’s powers fail. “After 16 years of authoritarian leadership, a power struggle would erupt,” he said. “At least two serious factions would try to take control of the party and this would lead to a split.”

Mufail Limani says the LDK is so defined by its links to Rugova that many cannot imagine the party without its old leader.

Haziri, an LDK member himself, admits that it might be tricky if Rugova was unable to lead his party. “The LDK has its structures … but it would be very to manage [without Rugova],” said Haziri.

Naim Jerliu, the LDK’s vice-president, however, still believes that Rugova can be Kosovo’s Moses, living just long enough to lead the Albanians to the Promised Land of independence.

“I hope and believe that Rugova will see the full implementation of the project for Kosovo’s independence and be the leader of an internationally acknowledged, independent, Kosovo,” he said.

Artan Mustafa is a regular BCR contributor.