Tajiks, Kyrgyz Play Politics on Andijan

In the aftermath of the unrest in Andijan, Uzbekistan’s Central Asian neighbours have largely supported Islam Karimov and his violent crackdown on protesters in the Fergana valley city during which hundreds died.

For two in particular, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, fear of antagonising their larger neighbour means officials have been particularly - and in the case of the Kyrgyz surprisingly - supportive of Karimov’s bloody response in Andijan.

Fresh from his country’s own revolution, Kyrgyzstan’s interim leader Kurmanbek Bakiev has backed Tashkent’s line that Islamic radicals were to blame for the events in Andijan.

“Everyone is worried about why this happens and where it comes from, and what it may lead to,” he said at a meeting with his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rakhmonov on May 18. “I think that time will answer all these questions, and soon. But one thing is clear, that here the mark of religious extremism can be felt.”

Kyrgyzstan relies on Uzbekistan for natural gas, enabling Tashkent to make political demands on its neighbour, which faces being cut off if it doesn’t comply. Border demarcation is also a contentious issue between the two.

Though it allowed a recent demonstration in front of the Uzbek embassy, some members of the Kyrgyz government – afraid of offending Tashkent – want the refugees who fled across the border to be sent back.

Unlike Kyrgyzstan whose huge borders with China and Kazakstan at least give it options for trade and transport, landlocked and mountainous Tajikistan is almost entirely dependent on its road links with Uzbekistan with whom it shares frontiers in the north and the east.

Regional unrest often results in the border being closed, disastrous for Tajikistan where poverty and unemployment are endemic and the free movement of goods and people between the two countries is essential.

During the 1992-1997 civil war that devastated Tajikistan, Uzbekistan closed its border with Tajikistan. After bombings in 1999 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan placed mines along the 1,300-kilometre frontier to prevent the spread of “Islamic extremism” into its territory.

Not surprisingly, then, Rakhmonov warned of the dangers of civil unrest during his meeting last month with Bakiev.

“Every country has its problems and issues,” he said. “Tajikistan … paid an enormous price. More than 150,000 people were victims of the civil war, and the economic damage is estimated at 7 billion US dollars. I believe that this was a lesson for everyone, and so today our people are doing peaceful constructive work in the name of their own prosperity and well-being.”

The war strained the already uneasy relationship between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which share a complicated history in the region.

Before the Soviet period, Persian-speaking Tajiks and Turkic Uzbeks lived together in Central Asia, building the famous cities of Samarkand and Bukhara that served for many centuries as centres of culture.

Following Stalin’s policy of divide and rule in Soviet Central Asia, those cities, as well as substantial portions of the ethnic Tajik population became part of Soviet Uzbekistan. For many Tajiks, this is viewed as a historical injustice.

Similarly a large number of ethnic Uzbeks live in Tajikistan as a result of this policy. More than 15 per cent of the Uzbek-Tajik border has not been officially delimited since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and there are no direct flights between Dushanbe and Tashkent.

In this context, fear of further upsetting its powerful neighbour means official Tajik reaction to Andijan has been entirely pro-Karimov, with many echoing the president’s warnings of the dangers of unrest in Tajikistan.

Abdulmajid Dostiev, the deputy head of the Tajikistan Majilis Namoyandagon, the lower chamber of parliament, told the Russian newspaper Izvestiya, “No one can remain indifferent when their neighbour’s house is on fire. The flames from this fire may quickly spread to us. Uzbekistan is our closest neighbour. I appeal to representatives of radical Islamists in the region … to stop before it is too late. Otherwise you will be cursed by the people.”

Deputy leader of the ruling People’s Democratic Party Davlatali Davlatov took a similar line, blaming extremists for trying to destabilise the region.

“The measures taken by President Karimov are harsh, but this is exactly how criminal groups … need to be treated in order to stabilise the situation.”

The head of the trade and commerce chamber of Uzbekistan, Alisher Shaikhov, said western media had exaggerated the events in Andijan.

“The incident only took place in one city and was localised. I do not think that … Andijan will have any negative influence on economic relations with Tajikistan, and on the contrary, it will unite our efforts even more, as the problem of extremists also exists in Tajikistan, and in all countries in the region,” he said.

For its part, Kazakstan’s reaction to Andijan has been muted, though it is watching its borders to ensure the trouble doesn’t spread and shares its neighbour’s concerns about Islamic radicals operating on its territory.

Like his Kyrgyz and Tajik counterparts, President Nursultan Nazabaev has reportedly described the events in Andijan as religious extremism, but for the most part the Kazak government has been reluctant to comment.

Filip Noubel is IWPR’s Central Asian project manager. Zafar Abdullaev, director of the Avesta news agency agency in Tajikistan, contributed to this report.