Tajiks Play Down India Base Reports
Despite repeated denials, reports that Delhi wants an outpost in Central Asia continue to surface.
Tajiks Play Down India Base Reports
Despite repeated denials, reports that Delhi wants an outpost in Central Asia continue to surface.
Persistent rumours that India is seeking a military foothold in Tajikistan refuse to go away despite attempts by officials to dismiss the story. Whether or not negotiations have taken place, analysts interviewed by IWPR believe the Tajik government will not agree for fear of upsetting powerful regional neighbours.
Once a backwater of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan emerged as a key strategic location in late 2001, when the French air force was allowed to station some planes there to support the United States-led operation in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The reports centre on India’s role in refurbishing the Aini airstrip, a long disused military facility some 15 kilometres southwest of Dushanbe. The site was abandoned in 1985 as the Soviet military wound up its ill-fated occupation of Afghanistan. The Indians began repairing the airstrip and building new hangars in 2002, and the site is now said to be ready for use.
The big question is who will get to use it. As well as Tajikistan’s major partner Russia, there has been talk of Indian or French air forces stationing planes at the base.
The long-running story that Delhi had designs on the airfield was revitalised by a July 17 report in the Times of India saying that an Indian air force squadron of multipurpose military helicopters plus a number of training planes would be located at Aini.
According to the paper’s unnamed defence sources, this could happen by the end of the year, and it would only be the start – ultimately, India would seek to station its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets at the base. "It may be just a military outpost at the moment but will develop into a full-fledged base in the future," said the source.
The source said India was seeking “a larger strategic imprint” in Central Asia for political and economic reasons. Such a presence would allow it to keep an eye on long-term rival Pakistan as well as on Afghanistan, a country where the competition between Islamabad and Delhi has often been played out. The Times of India story even suggested that the base could be used as a launch-pad for Indian special forces operations.
The paper pointed out that the defence ministry in Delhi was denying any plans to establish a military base at Aini. This was reiterated officials in Tajikistan.
Tajik foreign minister Hamrokhon Zarifi responded a day after the Times of India report came out. “India is indeed helping to reconstruct the Aini aerodrome, but that does not mean that it is opening a military base,” he said at a press conference on July 18. “No one is holding talks on opening the base.”
Major-General Maruf Hasanov, head of the international relations at the Tajik defence ministry, pointed out that the two governments had not even signed a treaty on defence cooperation, and that the 2002 agreement on the refurbishment of the Aini base made no provision for its subsequent use by the Indian military.
Although the defence ministry insists no talks have taken place, let decisions made, an IWPR source in the ministry said discussions were taking place with the regard to setting up a training centre at Aini, where Indian pilots would teach their Tajik colleagues.
Two days later, Tajik government officials had to deal with another report, this time that French and Russian combat planes currently stationed at Dushanbe’s civilian airport were to redeploy to Aini.
Russia, the key superpower in Central Asia, currently has four Sukhoi-29 fighters and two transport helicopters at the airport as part of a substantial military presence in Tajikistan that has continued since Soviet times.
The French presence consists of three Mirage 2000s and three of the latest Rafale fighters, as well as two military transports. Although they are part of the NATO mission operating in Afghanistan, their presence has not been particularly controversial, as the French are not viewed as having the same kind of regional ambitions as the Americans.
Speaking on July 20, Firuz Hamroev, the deputy director of Tajik Air, the national civilian airline, said the planes were to be moved because they were blocking the tarmac at Dushanbe airport.
The Tajik defence ministry issued a strong rebuff on July 27, saying, “Recently, there have been frequent reports in the media that Russia, Indian and French air units are to be stationed at the Hissar [Aini] airfield. At present, the question of any foreign force using the airfield is not being discussed at all.”
Delhi’s interest in Tajikistan dates back to the Central Asian state’s emergence from the ruins of the Soviet Union in 2001, and is connected in part with India’s historical support for political factions in northern Afghanistan, as a counter to the southern Pashtun areas which have a closer connection with Pakistan, geographically and otherwise.
“India is worried that if Afghanistan falls into the hands of the pro-Pakistani Taleban, then Pakistan’s sphere of influence would extend right up to the [Afghan] border with Tajikistan,” Tajik political analyst Parviz Mullojanov told IWPR.
Mullojanov said the very fact that the Aini story has resurfaced in the media time and again suggests that the Tajik and Indian authorities have indeed been holding talks for some years now. In 2005, the then Russian defence minister Sergei Ivanov was reported as saying Moscow and Dushanbe were discussing shared use of Aini with India.
Analyst Asliddin Jumaev says such an arrangement would in any case be impossible without Moscow’s consent. “If India is able to use the military base at Aini, it will only be in conjunction with Russia,” he said.
However, the consensus among the Tajikistan-based analysts interviewed by IWPR was that Delhi’s plan to create a Central Asian outpost would be blocked by Moscow. Delhi and Moscow have historically been on good terms, but inviting the Indians into an area that Russia views as its own sphere of influence would be another matter.
According to Mullojanov, Russia would not welcome an outsider setting up shop in the region.
Asliddin Jumaev, an independent analyst, added that the arrangement would need to be approved by the two regional security groupings of which Tajikistan is a member, the Collective Security Treaty organisation consisting of several former Soviet states, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, which brings together Russia, China and four Central Asian republics. Moscow’s influence figures large in both structures.
In addition, the Tajiks also have to reckon with the interests of Pakistan, their next-door neighbour but one.
Both Islamabad and Delhi are interested in investing in Tajikistan, most of all in the copious hydroelectricity this mountainous country is capable of generating, and of which they are both in need.
Mullojanov believes this gives the Pakistanis considerable influence. “As a potential investor in various major projects, Pakistan could obstruct the progress of agreements on the military base,” he said.
Another external power, the United States, has the use of a military airbase in Kyrgyzstan
Analysts also noted that the United States, whose financial support is important to Tajikistan, might not be happy to see the a shift in the broader regional power-balance caused by the emergence of an Indian presence north of the Khyber Pass.
Rukhshona Alieva is an IWPR contributor in Dushanbe.
Once a backwater of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan emerged as a key strategic location in late 2001, when the French air force was allowed to station some planes there to support the United States-led operation in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The reports centre on India’s role in refurbishing the Aini airstrip, a long disused military facility some 15 kilometres southwest of Dushanbe. The site was abandoned in 1985 as the Soviet military wound up its ill-fated occupation of Afghanistan. The Indians began repairing the airstrip and building new hangars in 2002, and the site is now said to be ready for use.
The big question is who will get to use it. As well as Tajikistan’s major partner Russia, there has been talk of Indian or French air forces stationing planes at the base.
The long-running story that Delhi had designs on the airfield was revitalised by a July 17 report in the Times of India saying that an Indian air force squadron of multipurpose military helicopters plus a number of training planes would be located at Aini.
According to the paper’s unnamed defence sources, this could happen by the end of the year, and it would only be the start – ultimately, India would seek to station its Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets at the base. "It may be just a military outpost at the moment but will develop into a full-fledged base in the future," said the source.
The source said India was seeking “a larger strategic imprint” in Central Asia for political and economic reasons. Such a presence would allow it to keep an eye on long-term rival Pakistan as well as on Afghanistan, a country where the competition between Islamabad and Delhi has often been played out. The Times of India story even suggested that the base could be used as a launch-pad for Indian special forces operations.
The paper pointed out that the defence ministry in Delhi was denying any plans to establish a military base at Aini. This was reiterated officials in Tajikistan.
Tajik foreign minister Hamrokhon Zarifi responded a day after the Times of India report came out. “India is indeed helping to reconstruct the Aini aerodrome, but that does not mean that it is opening a military base,” he said at a press conference on July 18. “No one is holding talks on opening the base.”
Major-General Maruf Hasanov, head of the international relations at the Tajik defence ministry, pointed out that the two governments had not even signed a treaty on defence cooperation, and that the 2002 agreement on the refurbishment of the Aini base made no provision for its subsequent use by the Indian military.
Although the defence ministry insists no talks have taken place, let decisions made, an IWPR source in the ministry said discussions were taking place with the regard to setting up a training centre at Aini, where Indian pilots would teach their Tajik colleagues.
Two days later, Tajik government officials had to deal with another report, this time that French and Russian combat planes currently stationed at Dushanbe’s civilian airport were to redeploy to Aini.
Russia, the key superpower in Central Asia, currently has four Sukhoi-29 fighters and two transport helicopters at the airport as part of a substantial military presence in Tajikistan that has continued since Soviet times.
The French presence consists of three Mirage 2000s and three of the latest Rafale fighters, as well as two military transports. Although they are part of the NATO mission operating in Afghanistan, their presence has not been particularly controversial, as the French are not viewed as having the same kind of regional ambitions as the Americans.
Speaking on July 20, Firuz Hamroev, the deputy director of Tajik Air, the national civilian airline, said the planes were to be moved because they were blocking the tarmac at Dushanbe airport.
The Tajik defence ministry issued a strong rebuff on July 27, saying, “Recently, there have been frequent reports in the media that Russia, Indian and French air units are to be stationed at the Hissar [Aini] airfield. At present, the question of any foreign force using the airfield is not being discussed at all.”
Delhi’s interest in Tajikistan dates back to the Central Asian state’s emergence from the ruins of the Soviet Union in 2001, and is connected in part with India’s historical support for political factions in northern Afghanistan, as a counter to the southern Pashtun areas which have a closer connection with Pakistan, geographically and otherwise.
“India is worried that if Afghanistan falls into the hands of the pro-Pakistani Taleban, then Pakistan’s sphere of influence would extend right up to the [Afghan] border with Tajikistan,” Tajik political analyst Parviz Mullojanov told IWPR.
Mullojanov said the very fact that the Aini story has resurfaced in the media time and again suggests that the Tajik and Indian authorities have indeed been holding talks for some years now. In 2005, the then Russian defence minister Sergei Ivanov was reported as saying Moscow and Dushanbe were discussing shared use of Aini with India.
Analyst Asliddin Jumaev says such an arrangement would in any case be impossible without Moscow’s consent. “If India is able to use the military base at Aini, it will only be in conjunction with Russia,” he said.
However, the consensus among the Tajikistan-based analysts interviewed by IWPR was that Delhi’s plan to create a Central Asian outpost would be blocked by Moscow. Delhi and Moscow have historically been on good terms, but inviting the Indians into an area that Russia views as its own sphere of influence would be another matter.
According to Mullojanov, Russia would not welcome an outsider setting up shop in the region.
Asliddin Jumaev, an independent analyst, added that the arrangement would need to be approved by the two regional security groupings of which Tajikistan is a member, the Collective Security Treaty organisation consisting of several former Soviet states, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, which brings together Russia, China and four Central Asian republics. Moscow’s influence figures large in both structures.
In addition, the Tajiks also have to reckon with the interests of Pakistan, their next-door neighbour but one.
Both Islamabad and Delhi are interested in investing in Tajikistan, most of all in the copious hydroelectricity this mountainous country is capable of generating, and of which they are both in need.
Mullojanov believes this gives the Pakistanis considerable influence. “As a potential investor in various major projects, Pakistan could obstruct the progress of agreements on the military base,” he said.
Another external power, the United States, has the use of a military airbase in Kyrgyzstan
Analysts also noted that the United States, whose financial support is important to Tajikistan, might not be happy to see the a shift in the broader regional power-balance caused by the emergence of an Indian presence north of the Khyber Pass.
Rukhshona Alieva is an IWPR contributor in Dushanbe.
