Uzbek Gas Users Could Lose Out From Rising Exports
Uzbek Gas Users Could Lose Out From Rising Exports
A plan to increase exports of natural gas from Uzbekistan will only be possible, in the short term at least, if the authorities cut domestic consumption, say NBCentralAsia analysts.
On November 6, President Islam Karimov announced plans to increase export volumes by 50 per cent to reach 25 billion cubic metres.
Karimov also made it clear he wants to export gas to Europe. He noted that “to date, Uzbekistan has not taken part in alternative projects concerning new pipelines which would allow it to fulfil its potential and identify routes other than the ones we currently use”.
At the moment, Uzbekistan’s only export route is via the Soviet-era Central Asia-Centre gas pipeline controlled by the Russian energy giant Gazprom.
Uzbek gas production currently stands at about 60 billion cu m a year, of which some 17 billion is exported – 13 billion to Russia and four billion to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan and Tajikistan – while the rest is consumed domestically.
Officials are predicting a rise in export volumes when new wells come on stream in the Ustyurt region in the west of the country. These deposits are now being developed with the help of foreign investors.
A national programme for mineral resources development envisages that annual gas production will rise to 65 billion cu m by 2010. Energy experts estimate that increasing production would cost around three billion US dollars.
NBCentralAsia analysts say the plan to expand exports is quite feasible, but warn that it will take time. Some, like Tashpulat Yoldashev, believe Karimov does not plan to wait that long, and will achieve the increase by cutting domestic consumption of gas rather than raising production.
Yoldashev, who no longer lives in Uzbekistan, predicts that the authorities will simply stop supplying gas to small factories, bakeries and hothouses, and reduce gas availability in the provinces. He says the government started reducing the gas supply to rural areas as early as last year.
An observer in Tashkent believes the Uzbek government has already taken steps to mitigate the loss of gas to the domestic economy. Under a 2005 national programme for restructuring energy use, the use of gas to generate electricity is to be reduced by 25 per cent, to be replaced by coal. Conversion from gas to coal is already under way at some thermal power stations.
“These measures will make additional amounts of gas available for export,” said the observer.
Other commentators say the authorities are planning to economise by bringing in energy-saving technologies. According to one economist, “If this is done intelligently, these measures will create savings of 1.5 billion cu m of natural gas every year.”
NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service resumed in 2008, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
On November 6, President Islam Karimov announced plans to increase export volumes by 50 per cent to reach 25 billion cubic metres.
Karimov also made it clear he wants to export gas to Europe. He noted that “to date, Uzbekistan has not taken part in alternative projects concerning new pipelines which would allow it to fulfil its potential and identify routes other than the ones we currently use”.
At the moment, Uzbekistan’s only export route is via the Soviet-era Central Asia-Centre gas pipeline controlled by the Russian energy giant Gazprom.
Uzbek gas production currently stands at about 60 billion cu m a year, of which some 17 billion is exported – 13 billion to Russia and four billion to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan and Tajikistan – while the rest is consumed domestically.
Officials are predicting a rise in export volumes when new wells come on stream in the Ustyurt region in the west of the country. These deposits are now being developed with the help of foreign investors.
A national programme for mineral resources development envisages that annual gas production will rise to 65 billion cu m by 2010. Energy experts estimate that increasing production would cost around three billion US dollars.
NBCentralAsia analysts say the plan to expand exports is quite feasible, but warn that it will take time. Some, like Tashpulat Yoldashev, believe Karimov does not plan to wait that long, and will achieve the increase by cutting domestic consumption of gas rather than raising production.
Yoldashev, who no longer lives in Uzbekistan, predicts that the authorities will simply stop supplying gas to small factories, bakeries and hothouses, and reduce gas availability in the provinces. He says the government started reducing the gas supply to rural areas as early as last year.
An observer in Tashkent believes the Uzbek government has already taken steps to mitigate the loss of gas to the domestic economy. Under a 2005 national programme for restructuring energy use, the use of gas to generate electricity is to be reduced by 25 per cent, to be replaced by coal. Conversion from gas to coal is already under way at some thermal power stations.
“These measures will make additional amounts of gas available for export,” said the observer.
Other commentators say the authorities are planning to economise by bringing in energy-saving technologies. According to one economist, “If this is done intelligently, these measures will create savings of 1.5 billion cu m of natural gas every year.”
NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service resumed in 2008, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
