Uzbeks, Tajiks Argue Over Rail Blockage

The failure of Tashkent and Dushanbe to resolve a dispute over rail freight held up in Uzbekistan may prompt Moscow to step in as mediator, NBCentralAsia experts say.

Freight destined for Tajikistan has been sitting on Uzbek railway sidings for the last three month, and an inter-governmental commission met in Tashkent on April 27 to agree a solution – with no success.

There are 660 tanker wagons containing fuel and 230 railcars loaded with grain, cement, and equipment. When the delays began in February, the Uzbek authorities blamed heavy traffic on the railways as well as mudflows that had destroyed parts of some lines.

However, the real reason appears to be that most of the freight is intended for a massive construction project to complete the Roghun hydroelectric power station, which Uzbekistan wants to see halted.

At the inter-governmental commission meeting, Uzbek officials reportedly issued their Tajik counterparts with an ultimatum – the trains would be going nowhere unless the Tajiks halted work on Roghun pending an international survey of the dam’s likely environmental impact on the wider region, for which Tashkent has been pressing since last year.

“This transit problem stems from Tashkent’s reluctance to accept the construction of a powerful [water flow] regulator,” confirmed Dilmurad Kholmatov, a political analyst in Uzbekistan. “Demanding an independent international assessment of this project is an entirely justifiable attempt to stop the construction”.

The Roghun power plant would have the world’s highest dam and the Tajiks believe the plant will solve their severe energy problems at a stroke and even let them sell surplus electricity to Pakistan and Iran. The Uzbeks fear it could obstruct the water flow on the Amu Darya, the major waterway which is a vital source of irrigation for their agricultural sector. In addition, they think that building such a massive structure in an earthquake-prone zone is unwise.

Uzbekistan has sought support from Russia and Turkmenistan for its view.

It is also clearly applying other forms of pressure on Tajikistan, and its geographical position as the main transport route connecting that country with Kazakstan and Russia to the north gives it a lot of leverage.

NBCentralAsia experts in Central Asia say Uzbek-Tajik relations have reached a new low.

Parviz Mullojonov, a political analyst and executive director of the Public Committee for Democratic Reforms in Tajikistan, believes the only way to ease tensions is for an outside mediator.

Kholmatov agrees. “The two sides have reached a stalemate,” he said, “For these enduring differences to be overcome, a third party – for example Russia – needs to intervene. Given its traditionally strong ties in this region, it must assume the role of mediator in the negotiations.”

An economist in Uzbekistan, who requested anonymity, said Moscow was not only well-placed to refere the dispute, it had commercial interests in both countries to protect. In Tajikistan, for example, the Russians are helping upgrade the giant aluminium plant at Tursunzoda, while energy companies Gazprom and Lukoil are involved in oil and gas exploration in Uzbekistan.

“If Moscow asks them to sit down at the negotiating table, they’ll have to do so,” he said. “There are also ready-made forums for the discussions, such as summits of the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS], or as a last resort, the Eurasian Economic Community, even though Uzbekistan has suspended membership of the latter grouping.”

An informal CIS summit takes place in Moscow on May 8, with an official one scheduled for December.

This article was produced as part of IWPR’s News Briefing Central Asia output, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.