Tashkent Sees Astana as Possible Ally on Water
Tashkent Sees Astana as Possible Ally on Water
The Uzbek authorities seem to be trying to engage Kazakstan as an ally on regional water matters.
On April 14, the Uzbek foreign ministry issued a formal statement outlining the government’s attitude to plans by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to build power stations on rivers shared by the Central Asian states.
The Tajiks want to complete the Rogun dam scheme on the upper reaches of the Amu Darya, while the Kyrgyz are planning two hydroelectric plants at Kambarata on the Naryn river, a major tributary of the Syr Darya. Flowing down from the mountains of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya provide vital irrigation for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.
The statement came two weeks before Central Asian officials were due to meet to discuss ways of mitigating the ecological crisis around the Aral Sea, which has shrunk to a fraction of its former size in recent decades because of over-use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.
Uzbekistan has consistently opposed plans to create more dams on the two rivers, fearing that this would reduce the flow of water reaching its territory and thereby place its agriculture at risk. The country is heavily dependent on export revenues from cotton, a particularly thirsty crop.
The foreign ministry statement was very much in the same vein as previous ones, warning that Roghun and Kambarata projects “pursue commercial interests and far-reaching political objectives, but disregard the possible consequences and ignore the concerns of the neighbouring states”.
It summed up Uzbekistan’s position as being that “any large-scale construction projects in the basins of trans-boundary rivers requires the endorsement of all countries in the region”.
Previously, Tashkent has proposed that major hydroelectric projects need to be subject to tougher technical requirements, and preceded by feasibility studies conducted under the aegis of the United Nations.
Earlier this year, Turkmenistan gave the Uzbeks its backing on the issue, and now Tashkent appears to be roping in the Kazaks, another downstream state dependent on rivers flowing from other republics.
One sign that they may be succeeding came on April 3, when Kazak prime minister Karim Masimov paid a surprise visit to Tashkent. A joint statement issued afterwards said the two countries would “present a united front on the water issue”.
However, NBCentralAsia analysts say the success of this alliance would depend on whether these two states can put other differences aside
According to one observer in Tashkent, Kazakstan’s president Nursultan Nazarbayev will back Uzbekistan only if his counterpart President Islam Karimov becomes more cooperative on economic and other matters. The rivalry between these states, the largest in Central Asia, has obstructed regional agreements.
If the two were to work together on water, they would be a formidable force against smaller Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
“If Kazakstan and Uzbekistan are really able to adopt a common position on regional water use, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will find it extraordinarily difficult to resist their demands,” said the Tashkent-based observer.
He pointed out that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are economically weaker, and rely on their larger neighbours for fuel, freight transit and trade.
Tashpulat Yoldashev, an Uzbek political observer based abroad, is more sceptical that Bishkek and Dushanbe will cave in to pressure exerted by Kazakstan and Uzbekistan and abandon hydropower projects to which the Kremlin has pledged its financial support.
“Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are currently facing energy shortages and will implement these projects no matter what, and they won’t make significant concessions,” said Yoldashev.
Another commentator suggested that Uzbekistan and Kazakstan might take a different tack, investing in Kyrgyz and Tajik hydroelectric projects so as to be able to control them later on.
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service has resumed, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
On April 14, the Uzbek foreign ministry issued a formal statement outlining the government’s attitude to plans by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to build power stations on rivers shared by the Central Asian states.
The Tajiks want to complete the Rogun dam scheme on the upper reaches of the Amu Darya, while the Kyrgyz are planning two hydroelectric plants at Kambarata on the Naryn river, a major tributary of the Syr Darya. Flowing down from the mountains of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya provide vital irrigation for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.
The statement came two weeks before Central Asian officials were due to meet to discuss ways of mitigating the ecological crisis around the Aral Sea, which has shrunk to a fraction of its former size in recent decades because of over-use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.
Uzbekistan has consistently opposed plans to create more dams on the two rivers, fearing that this would reduce the flow of water reaching its territory and thereby place its agriculture at risk. The country is heavily dependent on export revenues from cotton, a particularly thirsty crop.
The foreign ministry statement was very much in the same vein as previous ones, warning that Roghun and Kambarata projects “pursue commercial interests and far-reaching political objectives, but disregard the possible consequences and ignore the concerns of the neighbouring states”.
It summed up Uzbekistan’s position as being that “any large-scale construction projects in the basins of trans-boundary rivers requires the endorsement of all countries in the region”.
Previously, Tashkent has proposed that major hydroelectric projects need to be subject to tougher technical requirements, and preceded by feasibility studies conducted under the aegis of the United Nations.
Earlier this year, Turkmenistan gave the Uzbeks its backing on the issue, and now Tashkent appears to be roping in the Kazaks, another downstream state dependent on rivers flowing from other republics.
One sign that they may be succeeding came on April 3, when Kazak prime minister Karim Masimov paid a surprise visit to Tashkent. A joint statement issued afterwards said the two countries would “present a united front on the water issue”.
However, NBCentralAsia analysts say the success of this alliance would depend on whether these two states can put other differences aside
According to one observer in Tashkent, Kazakstan’s president Nursultan Nazarbayev will back Uzbekistan only if his counterpart President Islam Karimov becomes more cooperative on economic and other matters. The rivalry between these states, the largest in Central Asia, has obstructed regional agreements.
If the two were to work together on water, they would be a formidable force against smaller Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
“If Kazakstan and Uzbekistan are really able to adopt a common position on regional water use, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will find it extraordinarily difficult to resist their demands,” said the Tashkent-based observer.
He pointed out that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are economically weaker, and rely on their larger neighbours for fuel, freight transit and trade.
Tashpulat Yoldashev, an Uzbek political observer based abroad, is more sceptical that Bishkek and Dushanbe will cave in to pressure exerted by Kazakstan and Uzbekistan and abandon hydropower projects to which the Kremlin has pledged its financial support.
“Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are currently facing energy shortages and will implement these projects no matter what, and they won’t make significant concessions,” said Yoldashev.
Another commentator suggested that Uzbekistan and Kazakstan might take a different tack, investing in Kyrgyz and Tajik hydroelectric projects so as to be able to control them later on.
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service has resumed, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)
