Catching the Last Train for Europe

The continuing fall in support for nationalism and a growing concern over bread-and-butter economic issues are likely to reflected in the outcome of the general election on October 5.

Analysts in Sarajevo believe the poll could determine whether Bosnia-Hercegovina, BiH, manages to catch "the last train" for European integration.

The vote comes at a time when western financial and political support is not only shrinking but also becoming highly dependent on successful implementation of economic and social reforms, which many nationalist politicians have been reluctant to implement.

The campaign has so far witnessed almost no violence of the kind seen in earlier elections when ethnic minorities and returning refugees were often attacked just to stir up nationalist tensions.

Since the end of the Balkan war, this is the first time that Bosnians have held their own election. The four previous ballots since 1996 were supervised by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, OSCE. Whereas previous contests were for a two-year term this one is for four years.

The poll will cover all levels of government in BiH, with the country's 2.3 million voters electing new entity and state authorities.

According to OSCE figures, the three main nationalist parties have shed between 20 and 10 per cent of their voters in each of the four previous elections. Analysts expect this trend to continue although nationalists will stay playing a major role in the general pattern of government.

This trend, coupled with recent constitutional changes, indicates that no one party is likely to form a government by itself in most of the contests.

The strongest chance of a one-party majority is seen in the election for the Republika Srpska, RS, parliament where the nationalist Serb Democratic Party, SDS, is predicted to win up to 50 per cent of the vote.

In most cases, BiH administrations will be put together by coalitions between often incompatible groups.

Of the predominantly Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) parties, it seems that the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, SBiH, will play a major role. Overall, it comes in third place behind the Bosniak nationalist Party of Democratic Action, SDA, and the leading moderate Social Democratic Party, SDP. But the SZBiH could be the lever in determining whether SDA or SDP will assume power here.

In the past, the SBiH formed coalitions with both of these parties but broke with them dramatically at the end of their term. Another possibility is a coalition between SDA and the strongly nationalist Croatian Democratic Union, the HDZ. But such a link between two competing nationalisms might backfire.

In the contest for a state-wide parliament, a wider coalition embracing parties from the RS would be required.

One outcome that seems certain is the results of the contest for the three-man Bosnian presidency. Surveys show the Bosniak, Croat and Serb representatives will be Haris Silajdzic from the SZBiH, Dragan Covic of the HDZ and the SDS' Mirko Sarovic respectively.

All recently conducted surveys show the popularity of these three candidates within their ethnic communities is too strong to challenge. The main criterion in voting for the presidency is a candidate's ability to protect the national interests of his people.

Even though the presidency candidates have nationalistic credentials, they represent a new political breed, which combines nationalist loyalties with a concern for economic issues. Over the past two years, the authority has become marginalised, with the most important decisions being passed to the state and entity governments.

In RS, nationalist conservative parties still have a strong lead over moderates. Polls show it will be practically impossible to have an RS government without the SDS. The closer the elections, the more popular this party becomes and if this trend continues there is even a chance that it will win more than 50 per cent of parliamentary seats in the entity.

In theory, this would enable the SDS to form a government on its own. But constitutional changes in March made one-ethnic group rule impossible. Under the new proportional representation rules, which apply all over Bosnia, the RS will be obliged to have two deputy presidents representing each of other two communities.

The voters' mood so far indicates that SDP candidates Mirsad Dzapo and Ivan Tomljenovic stand the best chance of becoming RS deputy presidents representing the Bosniak and Croat sides respectively. As for the make up of the new RS government, the constitutional amendments explicitly stipulate that at least 35 per cent of its members must come from non-Serb communities.

All these factors indicate that moderate political trends will continue in Bosnia although implementation of the election results and making of coalitions and alliances may be slow and complicated.

Senad Slatina is a journalist with the Sarajevo weekly Slobodna Bosna. Zvonimir Jukic is a reporter for the daily Nezavisne Novine and ONASA news agency from Mostar. Sanja Lejic is a journalist with the Nezavisne Novine in Banja Luka.