Transcaspian Pipeline Remains Distant Prospect

After Turkmen government representatives met European Union officials to discuss a possible gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea, a leading energy expert said the chances of it happening were slim.

Talks on the pipeline took place at a conference in Berlin on March 12-14, intended to promote the EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor project to take natural gas from the Caspian region to Europe.

To become more than a plan, this framework pact would need at least two pipeline projects to come to fruition. First, a major westward route which could be either the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline, on which Azerbaijan and Turkey recently signed a preliminary agreement; or else the long-heralded Nabucco pipeline from eastern Turkey to Europe, which would require an additional stretch to be laid to Azerbaijan. Secondly, a pipeline would need to be laid under the sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan to feed in gas from the Central Asian state’s massive reserves.

To facilitate this, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are likely to sign a bilateral agreement, in a talks process that the EU has been mediating. This document would commit Turkmenistan to supplying a certain volume of gas to make the whole Southern Gas Corridor viable.

News Briefing Central Asia asked Rovshan Ibrahimov, head of the foreign policy department at the Centre for Strategic Studies in Azerbaijan, about the prospects for an undersea route – the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project, TCGP – given the numerous obstacles it faces.

NBCentralAsia: How feasible is a pipeline across the Caspian?

Rovshan Ibrahimov: If the participants continue making the same arguments they did at the Berlin conference, the project will remain nothing more than a topic for endless debate. The practical realities and requirements for pushing the project forward are being ignored.

NBCentralAsia: Would existing treaties among Caspian littoral states allow Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to sign the kind of bilateral agreement that’s planned?

Ibrahimov: Legally speaking, there wouldn’t be a problems if Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, at least, could reach a bilateral agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea. However, no such agreement exists.

Baku and Ashgabat disagree on which of them owns the Kapaz/Serdar hydrocarbon deposit. It’s impossible to agree on such matters when the states in question hold opposing views on how sectoral demarcation of the Caspian should work.

But even if we assume that Baku and Ashgabat do sign an agreement, we must also acknowledge the practical realities of geopolitics. Russia and Iran would obstruct it [TCGP] in every possible way. And it will not be possible to go ahead and ignore their national interests.

NBCentralAsia: What are the conditions for mitigating the risks and for making the Trans Caspian south branch a reality?

Ibrahimov: At the Berlin conference it was agreed that the EU would sponsor the [Azerbaijani-Turkmen] agreement. But the EU will also have to provide security guarantees, and insure against possible interference by Russia and Iran.

Furthermore, the financing for the project has to be clarified. It would be reasonable to expect the EU to provide this, but I doubt it is in a position to do so – it doesn’t have the mechanisms. Its foreign and energy policies are implemented through inter-government ties, not at supranational level, and this limits the options for reaching comprehensive agreements.

Germany, the driving force in the EU, has close connections with Russia [an opponent of TCGP] in the gas sector. It’s unclear whether the EU will provide the kind of guarantees that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will need to make the pipeline happen. Neither country is going to be able to handle the risks on its own.

This article was produced as part of News Briefing Central Asia output, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.

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