EU Agreement Causes Rift in Serbia

Serbia’s outgoing prime minister Vojislav Kostunica this week criticised President Boris Tadic’s efforts to sign a preliminary deal bringing the country a step closer to European Union membership. The row has underlined deep rifts between the former coalition partners ahead of elections next month.



According to local media reports from April 11, Tadic indicated that Serbia would sign a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA, a forerunner to full accession to the bloc, if this was offered.



But Kostunica, whose coalition with Tadic’s Democratic Party collapsed in March, said the SAA should only be signed if EU members recognise Kosovo as part of Serbia.



“There is a good and correct solution for Serbia’s relations with the EU. It is necessary to add just one more sentence to the agreement that will prove that Kosovo is an inalienable part of Serbian territory,” Kostunica told Tanjug news agency.



Tadic has portrayed the parliamentary election to be held on May 11 as a referendum on Europe, whereas Kostunica says it is about the status of Kosovo – the most contentious issue in Serbia right now, and one on which Tadic is vulnerable.



Kostunica’s comments followed renewed optimism among Serbia’s pro-European parties that the EU might offer Belgrade an opportunity to sign the SAA ahead of the poll.



But the opposition Radical and Socialist parties say the SAA would be in breach of the country’s constitution, and would be recognised only by the pro-European parties – the Democratic Party, Canak and G17 Plus – and not by Serbia as a whole.



“We advise President Tadic and his associates not to play games with Serbia, and not to sign anything, because they will have a big problem on their hands,” said Velimir Ilic, leader of the moderate nationalist party New Serbia.



The decision on whether to offer Serbia the SAA will be taken at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxemburg on April 28. The head of EU foreign policy, Javier Solana, has made no secret of his intention to persuade member states to offer the agreement to the Serbs.



“We want Serbia to be a close cooperative partner of the European Union and to come closer to the European Union and I would like everything that can be done on our side up to May 10 [the eve of the elections] to be done,” he told the European Parliament last week.



But major political parties in Serbia – both nationalist and pro-European – have accused Solana of meddling.



“Any support for Serbia from the European Union is welcome, but I will never welcome anyone’s interference in Serbia’s internal affairs," Tadic said in an interview with Beta news agency.



The Dutch and Belgian governments are the main obstacles to Serbia signing the SAA, which was initialled in October.



The two countries are adamant that Serbia should arrest war crimes suspects Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic before further progress on EU membership is offered. The two former Bosnian Serb leaders are wanted by the Hague tribunal on charges relating to the 1995 genocide in Srebrenica, when more than 8,000 Bosniak men and boys were killed.



Dutch foreign minister Maxime Verhagen conceded that he was willing to “think creatively” to show Europe’s commitment to Serbia, prompting reports in the Serbian media that the SAA may yet be offered.



But the Netherlands insists it has not softened its position that it will not allow Serbia to sign until the fugitives are in The Hague.



“It’s still a precondition for signing the EU SAA – full cooperation with the Hague tribunal,” Verhagen’s spokesperson Bart Rijs told IWPR.



EU member states – the Netherlands included – are keen to extend their hand to Serbia in the run-up to the May elections to encourage people to vote for pro-European parties. The bloc sees Serbian membership as key to establishing wider stability in the Balkans.



But there are also concerns about how such a deal could impact the EU itself, especially if Serbia has not met all the conditions relating to cooperation with the tribunal.



“Solana is willing to make a gift of the SAA to Serbia without Serbia fulfilling the conditionality attached to it. This sends the wrong message to everyone in the region,” said James Lyon of the International Crisis Group.



Solana is keen to deal with all objections in Luxembourg at the end of the month. “He has said very clearly that he would like very much for the last impediments that are preventing unanimity to be overcome,” his spokesperson Cristina Gallach told IWPR.



But pro-Europeans Serbia are not hopeful that either the Netherlands or Belgium will change its position.



“I don’t see any change in the stance of the Netherlands. What their minister said actually denies the possibility of accepting the agreement,” said Zivorad Kovacevic, president of the European Movement in Serbia in Belgrade.



Even if the SAA were offered to Serbia ahead of the elections, it is uncertain how well it would be received, even among pro-Europeans.



Kovacevic said the agreement had taken so long that he has “mixed feelings” about its effect. “I personally am not sure of the positive effect of [the SAA]. I am in two minds about what would happen,” he said.



However, others believe a concrete offer would provide clarity on where exactly the pro-European forces stand, since Serbs are hearing conflicting messages about whether the SAA would be signed if it were offered.



Spomenka Grujicic, programme director of the Helsinki Committee in Belgrade, said a firm offer from Europe would end this confusion.



“They will have to come into the open so the picture will be clearer,” she said. “The [pro-European] parties that are speaking in blurred terms about the EU will have to speak up about what they think.”



The Radical and Socialist parties warn that if the Democratic Party signs the SAA, Tadic could be removed from office for violating the constitution.



Pro-Europeans say this is not possible. Kovacevic pointed to other EU nations such as Spain that do not recognise Kosovo’s independence, and said Serbia could take a similar stance.



“There is nothing in a legal [sense] that means the EU recognises Kosovo because it does not have the capacity to do that. Only some members, the most influential ones, recognise Kosovo – that’s it,” said Kovacevic.



But such arguments appear to miss the point. The Serbian constitution and the presidential oath of office require Tadic to defend Kosovo’s status as a part of Serbia.



The EULEX operation – the EU’s security mission in Kosovo – is seen by nationalists in Belgrade as signifying recognition of the territory’s independence, say analysts. Signing up to the EU could thus be seen as indirect recognition of the region’s independence.



“If the president were to do this, the nationalists would interpret this as breaking his oath of office and would try to impeach him,” said Lyon.



Although the Democratic Party advocates EU membership, it backed the withdrawal of ambassadors from those EU countries that recognised Kosovo independence, and also supported a bid to bring a motion on the legality of Kosovo’s independence before the International Court of Justice.



“[The Democratic Party] are not coming across as a party of principle or as a party with a programme other than to remain in office,” Lyon added.



The latest opinion polls in Belgrade – once a Democratic Party stronghold – show the Radicals on level pegging for the first time.



Simon Jennings is an IWPR reporter in The Hague.