Azerbaijan's New Presidency Off to Rough Start

The victory of Ilham Aliev in Azerbaijan's presidential election has been followed by an unprecedented crackdown against opposition activists and journalists in the oil-rich Caucasus state.

Trouble erupted after polls closed on October 15, in a ballot that saw Ilham easily succeed his father Heidar Aliev, leader of the former Soviet republic for most of the last 30 years. A demonstration in Baku against what was widely seen as a rigged vote spiraled out of control, and the security services responded swiftly and bloodily.

Human rights activists say that the initial crackdown has turned into systematic suppression of the opposition.

The principal opposition candidate, Isa Gambar, is under house arrest, while many of his party's senior leaders have been detained - most of them at the interior ministry's organised crime unit, which the New York-based organisation Human Rights Watch accuses of routinely using torture.

Interior ministry Sadig Gezalov told a press conference on October 22 that 62 people had been arrested, and 400 others detained for minor offences. One person died after being trampled, he said. Of the 110 policemen injured, 63 were still in hospital.

However, human rights organisations cited much higher figures. Leila Yunus, director of the Institute for Peace and Democracy in Baku, told IWPR that as of October 21 more than 600 people had been arrested, 12 were missing. She said hundreds of people had been beaten, 25 of them severely, with two left paralysed.

Safar Nehmatli, head of the Committee against Repression and Falsification, said that 1,500 people had been detained across Azerbaijan and 30 more were missing.

Human Rights Watch said that police beat at least one person to death and about 300 others had been seriously injured.

Ilham Aliev, whose father is seriously ill and has been receiving hospital treatment in the United States, officially won 76.8 per cent of the vote, with Gambar getting just 14 per cent.

Most international observers said the poll was marred by irregularities, intimidation of the opposition and a biased media, but did not question Aliev's overall victory.

However, in a highly unusual move, 188 observers from the Institute for Democracy in Eastern Europe, IDEE, part of the OSCE monitoring mission, published a more critical "dissenting opinion." Their report said, "The elections - as such - were conducted with major violations of the laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan, without mentioning gross violations of international standards."

Mubariz Gurbanly, a leading official in the pro-presidential Yeni Azerbaijan party, told IWPR that the crisis - for which he blamed the opposition - was over.

"We can really observe that society is developing feelings of hatred towards the opposition. And this can be easily explained. People were deeply shocked by the destructive actions of the radical opposition…. It was simply an emotional period, which has already passed and journalists should not focus too much attention on it."

But Peter Bouckaert at Human Rights Watch accused the Aliev government of "using the post-election violence, an affair in which they themselves played a major role, to justify a massive crackdown on the opposition.… If this crackdown continues, there won't be an opposition left in Azerbaijan by the end of the month."

The opposition claims that torture has been used to force five of its arrested leaders into denouncing Gambar. One of them, Umid party leader Igbal Agazade, made a television appearance blaming Gambar for the post-election violence. Agazade's face showed signs of injuries and his hands trembled.

There have also been two confirmed cases of schoolteachers attempting to expel the children of Musavat members and the party says that there are many others.

Journalists have likewise come under heavy pressure. According to Azerbaijan's Press Council, 71 journalists were attacked while working on election day and the aftermath. Of these, 49 were injured and six had their cameras confiscated.

The editor of the Avropa newspaper, Azer Garachenli, was held in detention for almost a week before being released, while Rauf Arifoglu, editor of the Yeni Musavat newspaper, hid in the Norwegian embassy for several days. The chairman of the pro-government party Modern Musavat called for the embassy to be stormed and Arifoglu to be captured and punished.

As protests flooded in from international organisations and embassies, the new regime began softening its tactics and on October 23, the last detained journalists were freed.

The opposition has also taken a step back, canceling a protest rally planned for October 22. "Now is not the time to hold mass rallies, as that is fraught with dangerous consequences. Society has to calm down," Etibar Mamedov, one of the main opposition leaders, told IWPR.

Eldar Ismailov, head of one of Azerbaijan's most influential non-government organizations, For Civic Accord, told IWPR that the worst was over and played down the gravity of the what was happening. "The situation is not as tragic as some of the media is portraying it," he said.

"I do not think the continuing attacks on members of the opposition, arrests and persecution are the result of an organised campaign from above. These episodes can be explained as an excessive desire to be loyal, sometimes to be doubly sure, and in some cases out of sheer stupidity. Many officials are doing their bosses a disservice.

"I think everyone who has been arrested will be free by the end of the week."

Some analysts believe that Aliev will try to improve his image following his inauguration on October 25 in hope of consolidating his power.

"It's possible Ilham Aliev will impose order on the upper echelons of power quite quickly and his people will be appointed to all important posts," said Ilgar Mamedov, one of the leaders of the opposition National Independence Party.

"Then the new president will not wait for the 2005 parliamentary elections, and will not give the opposition time to collect itself and will hold early elections next year."

However, Azerbaijan's new president is an entirely untested figure in a developing situation and it will take some time for his true intentions - and capabilities - to become clear.

Roman Temnikov is a correspondent with the Millet newspaper. Shahin Rzayev is IWPR's Azerbaijan coordinator.