Rapprochement With US Unlikely
Rapprochement With US Unlikely
The increasing frequency with which United States officials are visiting Tashkent and the apparent responsiveness of their Uzbek counterparts do not necessarily mean the difficult relationship between the two countries is set to thaw. According to local commentators, everything depends on whether President Islam Karimov wants that to happen.
During a visit to Tashkent last week, Evan Feigenbaum, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said Uzbek officials had expressed a readiness to resume bilateral relations, but he acknowledged there were difficulties in making this happen. Feigenbaum was speaking after talks with the head of the Security Council, the foreign, defence and education ministers and the ombudsman.
After government troops opened fire on a peaceful demonstration in Andijan in May 2005, Uzbekistan reacted to US criticisms by freezing bilateral relations and demanding that the Americans close their military base at Khanabad.
Feigenbaum follows Assistant Secretaries of State Daniel Fried and Richard Boucher as the third State Department official to visit Tashkent since relations broke down.
An NBCentralAsia political analyst based in Tashkent says Uzbekistan is keen to escape from the political isolation it found itself in after Andijan.
He predicts that both sides will make some concessions, and resume cooperation on military and economic matters and drug interdiction.
One such concession made by both sides could be a shift in position on what happened in Andijan.
“It will be left for the human rights activists. The politicians will gradually forget about Andijan,” said the analyst. “They have almost forgotten already.”
But other observers are more sceptical and believe the relationship has a long way to go before it starts warming up.
“Another more US official has tried to break the ‘Berlin Wall’ between Uzbekistan and America, but it seems his attempt has failed,” said independent journalist Sayid Aziz.
According to political scientist Rahim Ikramov, it will take more than a few polite statements by top officials. President Karimov’s agreement is essential. “The decision to resume a warm relationship can only be taken by one man, and it seems he has yet to express an interest in doing so,” said Ikramov said.
Political scientist Tashpulat Yoldashev agreed, adding that although some Uzbek government ministers may well favour a resumption in relations, this position is not universally held across the regime’s leadership.
“When they talk with their counterparts they express their own views, but these may not always coincide with the decisions taken at the top. Here, everything depends on what those at the top want,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
During a visit to Tashkent last week, Evan Feigenbaum, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said Uzbek officials had expressed a readiness to resume bilateral relations, but he acknowledged there were difficulties in making this happen. Feigenbaum was speaking after talks with the head of the Security Council, the foreign, defence and education ministers and the ombudsman.
After government troops opened fire on a peaceful demonstration in Andijan in May 2005, Uzbekistan reacted to US criticisms by freezing bilateral relations and demanding that the Americans close their military base at Khanabad.
Feigenbaum follows Assistant Secretaries of State Daniel Fried and Richard Boucher as the third State Department official to visit Tashkent since relations broke down.
An NBCentralAsia political analyst based in Tashkent says Uzbekistan is keen to escape from the political isolation it found itself in after Andijan.
He predicts that both sides will make some concessions, and resume cooperation on military and economic matters and drug interdiction.
One such concession made by both sides could be a shift in position on what happened in Andijan.
“It will be left for the human rights activists. The politicians will gradually forget about Andijan,” said the analyst. “They have almost forgotten already.”
But other observers are more sceptical and believe the relationship has a long way to go before it starts warming up.
“Another more US official has tried to break the ‘Berlin Wall’ between Uzbekistan and America, but it seems his attempt has failed,” said independent journalist Sayid Aziz.
According to political scientist Rahim Ikramov, it will take more than a few polite statements by top officials. President Karimov’s agreement is essential. “The decision to resume a warm relationship can only be taken by one man, and it seems he has yet to express an interest in doing so,” said Ikramov said.
Political scientist Tashpulat Yoldashev agreed, adding that although some Uzbek government ministers may well favour a resumption in relations, this position is not universally held across the regime’s leadership.
“When they talk with their counterparts they express their own views, but these may not always coincide with the decisions taken at the top. Here, everything depends on what those at the top want,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
