Political Crisis Unfolds in Kyrgyzstan

Demonstrators calling for the resignation of Kyrgyz prime minister Felix Kulov have failed to prod parliament into tabling a no-confidence motion, but many politicians are warning that the confrontation could lead the country towards anarchy.

Since October 22, relatives and allies of the late parliamentarian Tynychbek Akmatbaev have held a rally in the capital Bishkek at which they accused the prime minister of complicity in the politician's death. It is a charge he has dismissed as "absurd".

Kyrgyzstan has seen plenty of demonstrations over the past nine months – including the huge ones that toppled President Askar Akaev in March and heralded the present administration led by his successor Kurmanbek Bakiev. But some observers are warning that this comparatively modest gathering of just a few hundred protesters is a serious challenge to the resolve of the Bakiev government – and perhaps to its very existence.

Akmatbaev was shot dead on October 20 while inspecting a prison near Bishkek in his capacity as chairman of parliament's defence and legal affairs committee. While Akmatbaev was talking to convicts, a gun was produced – accounts vary as to who it belonged to - and he, his bodyguard, and a parliamentary advisor were killed in the ensuing fracas. Three other members of the team that accompanied him were injured, including the head of Kyrgyzstan's penal authority, Ikmatulla Polotov.

The incident might have passed off as an unforeseen tragedy in which tense negotiations turned nasty and spilled over into bloodshed. However, the case quickly took on political overtones as Akmatbaev's brother Ryspek led protestors in denouncing Prime Minister Kulov.

The demonstration, which began on the central Alatoo Square before shifting to the area outside parliament, was largely focused on Kulov.

Ryspek Akmatbaev denied there were any broader political ambitions at work. "We have not been organised by any political force," he insisted. "If Kulov resigns we'll disperse. If the premier's resignation is not accepted [by legislators], then we'll demand that parliament resigns."

By October 24, the demonstrators had swelled from 500 to about 1,000, and had blocked the side-entrances to the parliament building so that deputies would be forced to pay attention to them on their way to the main front door.

They told journalists that they had "tens of thousands" of supporters who would soon converge on the capital from all over the country. However, IWPR was aware of only one other similar protest, involving a crowd of about 200 in the southern city of Osh.

Parliament was due to debate the prison murders on October 24, but failed to get a quorum. The deputies instead came out to express their condolences to their late colleague's brother, and then travelled to his home region of Issykkul to meet his parents.

Legislators reconvened the following day amid speculation that the prime minister's resignation might be on the agenda. However, no motion calling for such a move was tabled, and the issue was not even discussed.

"Parliament has no legal basis for bringing this matter up for debate," said speaker Omurbek Tekebaev. "Under the constitution, deputies can only pass a motion of no confidence in the prime minister once a year, when he is reporting on his performance. Only the president can remove him."

Instead, the assembly agreed to set up a commission to look into the killing of Tynychbek Akmatbaev, which is due to report back by November 15.

Anti-Kulov protestors watching proceedings from outside live on television, were angered that their demand had not been met.

Meanwhile, 200 metres away, a rival group of perhaps 500 people set up their own demonstration – this time strongly backing the prime minister.

Although it seemed that parliamentary business went on unperturbed by the actions of the anti-Kulov crowd outside, politicians interviewed by IWPR were clearly worried about the implications of the dispute.

"It is the threshold of a crisis," said member of parliament Marat Sultanov. "If these problems are not resolved in the course of a week, the situation will grow into a crisis."

Some of the clues to this extraordinary level of concern lie in the unusual nature of the demonstration itself. Instead of the large numbers of women present at protests meetings over one issue or another which became commonplace after the March revolution, the people at the anti-Kulov rally are largely young, male and tough-looking.

Ryspek Akmatbaev himself is an imposing figure, well-known in Kyrgyzstan. His critics say he is a major figure in the underworld, in local parlance a "criminal authority". In recent months he has been under investigation for a number of alleged crimes, and he is due in court to face trial on October 28. But the unflattering description is one he does not dismiss out of hand. "The people like me, my mates picked me, so why shouldn't I be their authority?" he told reporters during the demonstration.

His supporters carry placards suggesting that Kulov is linked to convicted gangster Aziz Batukaev, who is reportedly a sworn enemy of Ryspek Akmatbaev and who is certainly housed in the prison where the murders took place. Batukaev arranged the murders on Kulov's behalf, they say.

The prime minister has rejected this allegation out of hand, saying he met Batukaev for the first and only time when he went to the jail to negotiate the return of the bodies.

The alleged proximity of criminal and political "authorities" in this tangled story highlights much broader issues to do with the Bakiev administration's willingness and ability to break with the past and build an open and democratic system. While the present government has pledged to look into the misdeeds of Akaev-era officials, critics say it has not done enough to distance itself from powerful businessmen with underworld connections.

Edil Baisalov, head of the NGO Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, sees the demand for Kulov's resignation as "a challenge to society, the nation and the authorities; an attempt to show that the criminal world is going to govern the country. We view this as an attempted coup d'etat, an attempt to seize power and the state system. It's a life-or-death struggle about who is to run the country – civil society or the criminal world."

Political scientist Nur Omarov also warns that organised crime is making a bid for political power. "If this trend continues, Kyrgyzstan will turn into what the criminals themselves would call a 'black republic' in which the crime bosses dictate the main policies." Omarov's reference is to "black" prison camps in which convicted gangsters are informally allowed to run daily affairs.

While some politicians like Sultanov and Iskhak Masaliev stop short of saying the country is in crisis, others are more robust.

"The country's on the verge of a bloodbath," warned parliamentarian Melis Eshimkanov. "If Bakiev and Kulov don't show what a force they are in tandem, and fail to impose order using the law-enforcement agencies, then Kyrgyzstan will cease to exist as a state."

Eshimkanov spoke of a hit-list on which his name and those of other deputies are said to stand. Rumours of the existence of such a mafia-style list emerged last month after the killing of deputy Bayaman Erkebaev. "As far as I know, they've already hired hitmen for us," said Eshimkanov. "For our own part we're strengthening our defences. I now have up to 40 bodyguards."

President Bakiev has been notably absent from the events of recent days – a fact commented on by many observers. He failed to turn up to a scheduled meeting of the country's Constitutional Council, and he has not made any public statement, even to defend his prime minister from attack.

For some, that suggests a worrying lack of resolve in a crisis, and means the coalition the two men forged before the July presidential election, lending the support of Kulov's northern powerbase to the southerner Bakiev in exchange for the job of prime minister, may be in danger of falling apart.

The Kyrgyzstan movement, whose leaders Azimbek Beknazarov and Roza Otunbaeva were until last month chief prosecutor and foreign minister, respectively, issued a statement warning that it would fight to prevent "the growing together of authorities and the criminals", and that it would call for the resignation of both president and prime minister unless they remained aligned with one another and restored order to the country.

Although Ryspek Akmatbaev's supporters have technically broken the law by erecting tents, their demonstration has been marked by good order – they even brought their own portaloos and rubbish bins. It is thus hard to envisage riot police breaking up the protest by force.

However, the police officers currently on duty are keeping an unusual distance, and that alarms Jypar Jeksheev, head of the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan. "No previous demonstrators have been given such freedom of movement," he told IWPR. "If even 20 women or a group of pensioners came onto the square, there would be at least a company of police [about 100 men] following them." In contrast, given the lack of supervision now, "it looks like the leadership has given the green light to what's going on", he said.

Analyst Omarov took a similar view, suggesting that Bakiev and his team were showing a degree of weakness which might point to amount to tacit approval for the demonstrators.

The prime minister, a former minister of security, may have more fighting spirit left. On October 24, he dismissed deputy interior minister Alymbay Sultanov and presented police with a set of orders that were decidedly pointed in tone, given the allegations made against his opponents.

The police's new tasks include "identifying and detaining individuals who are on the wanted list, or who are in illegal possession of weapons, and stopping people being forced into attending rallies and demonstrations".

Leila Saralaeva is an IWPR contributor in Kyrgyzstan.