High Chance of Success For Kyrgyz Democracy – Expert

In an interview for IWPR, Askhat Dykenbaev, an expert on governance issues, said the October 10 election to a new-shape parliament was the most democratic ever seen in Kyrgyzstan and in Central Asia generally, and together with the new constitution which underpinned the ballot, approved in a June referendum, creates a real opportunity for the country to move towards genuine democracy.

In the election, which went off peacefully despite the violent convulsions Kyrgyzstan has experienced in recent months, five parties won seats – Ata-Jurt, followed by the Social Democratic Party, Ar-Namys, Respublika and Ata-Meken. None gained the 50 per cent-plus majority needed to form a government, so the parties are now building coalitions to

“I’m personally convinced that we have a future, that the parliamentary system in Kyrgyzstan has a future,” Dykenbaev told IWPR. “Of course the situation could go various ways, from the worst-case scenario to the best – the development of parliamentarianism. Time will tell where we end up, of course, but so far all the indications are that the parliamentary system will take root and survive in our country.”

The analyst urged the various parties to work together to unite Kyrgyzstan and address the serious economic problems it faces. Ideally he would like to see a larger ruling coalition than the two or three parties needed to scrape together a majority, though he accept that such a broad bloc could also be less stable because of the range of positions the parties occupy from right to left.

Another positive factor in the equation, Dykenbaev said, was that the international community was pleased with the way things were going and was likely to support Kyrgyzstan through the process, including via funding.

As for possible vulnerabilities created by of Kyrgyzstan’s geopolitical position, Dykenbaev said, “despite the power of both Russia and the United States, the level of their political influence on Kyrgyzstan is limited; the influence they have on politicians here shouldn’t be exaggerated.”

 The audio programme, in Russian and Kyrgyz, went out on national radio stations in Kyrgyzstan, as part of IWPR project work funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.