Despite Claims, Uzbeks Still Need Grain Imports
Despite Claims, Uzbeks Still Need Grain Imports
As the Uzbek government claims another good grain crop, experts say the figures look doubtful and the country is in reality importing nearly half the cereals it needs from neighbouring Kazakstan.
On July 16, President Islam Karimov sent a letter of congratulations to the country’s farmers in which he said 6.175 tons of grain had been harvested this year. He cited high yields averaging out at 4.8 tons per hectare.
This year’s claimed harvest was somewhat lower than last year’s, put at a record 6.25 million tons.
Agriculture experts interviewed by NBCentralAsia say this year’s claimed harvest looks doubtful, not least because Uzbekistan, like the rest of Central Asia, has been short of water.
The State Committee for Statistics says domestic demand for wheat is about five million tons, for a population of 27 million.
Independent estimates put Uzbekistan’s annual grain imports at up to 2.5 million tons. In recent days, the independent news site Uzmetronom reported that flour imports from Kazakstan had been increased, while in mid-July, officials signed a contract for swift deliveries of flour from Russia’s Astrakhan region. That would suggest that far from exceeding domestic demand, the harvest is low enough to require preparations for a shortage.
“Uzbekistan is unable to meet domestic demand for grain products,” said a university professor who is conducting an independent study on the subject.
An NBCentralAsia observer in Tashkent noted that the wheat types grown in Uzbekistan are mostly for animal fodder and are unsuitable for making high-quality bread. The wheat grown on artificially irrigated land, in particular, is high-yield but low-quality, and needs to be blended with imported flour even to make what is called “social [welfare] bread”, which is cheaper than the standard flat bread.
Production of food-quality wheat is hampered by the fact that agriculture is geared towards the cash-crop cotton, which brings in 70 per cent of foreign-currency earnings. The bulk of arable land is used to grow cotton.
Water is another constraining factor for wheat production, since most of the river water used for irrigation goes to cotton plantations. The bulk of it comes from two great rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which flow from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The Tashkent-based observer said, “Because Uzbekistan lacks its own water resources, it cannot increase the area planted with cereals. In coming decades, it faces a real prospect of hunger, not self-sufficiency in food.”
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the moment.)
On July 16, President Islam Karimov sent a letter of congratulations to the country’s farmers in which he said 6.175 tons of grain had been harvested this year. He cited high yields averaging out at 4.8 tons per hectare.
This year’s claimed harvest was somewhat lower than last year’s, put at a record 6.25 million tons.
Agriculture experts interviewed by NBCentralAsia say this year’s claimed harvest looks doubtful, not least because Uzbekistan, like the rest of Central Asia, has been short of water.
The State Committee for Statistics says domestic demand for wheat is about five million tons, for a population of 27 million.
Independent estimates put Uzbekistan’s annual grain imports at up to 2.5 million tons. In recent days, the independent news site Uzmetronom reported that flour imports from Kazakstan had been increased, while in mid-July, officials signed a contract for swift deliveries of flour from Russia’s Astrakhan region. That would suggest that far from exceeding domestic demand, the harvest is low enough to require preparations for a shortage.
“Uzbekistan is unable to meet domestic demand for grain products,” said a university professor who is conducting an independent study on the subject.
An NBCentralAsia observer in Tashkent noted that the wheat types grown in Uzbekistan are mostly for animal fodder and are unsuitable for making high-quality bread. The wheat grown on artificially irrigated land, in particular, is high-yield but low-quality, and needs to be blended with imported flour even to make what is called “social [welfare] bread”, which is cheaper than the standard flat bread.
Production of food-quality wheat is hampered by the fact that agriculture is geared towards the cash-crop cotton, which brings in 70 per cent of foreign-currency earnings. The bulk of arable land is used to grow cotton.
Water is another constraining factor for wheat production, since most of the river water used for irrigation goes to cotton plantations. The bulk of it comes from two great rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which flow from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The Tashkent-based observer said, “Because Uzbekistan lacks its own water resources, it cannot increase the area planted with cereals. In coming decades, it faces a real prospect of hunger, not self-sufficiency in food.”
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the moment.)
