Rocky Times Ahead for Serbia-Montenegro

The federation of Serbia and Montenegro could be edging towards a constitutional crisis following the triumph of a right-wing political party in Serbia’s recent parliamentary ballot.

The two republics are currently in a loose state union - which suits the independence-minded Podgorica authorities - but this is now under threat following the victory of the Serbian Radical Party, SRS, in the December general elections.

The first signs of trouble came on January 5, when senior SRS officials announced they intended to demand the dismissal of the incumbent president of the state union, Montenegrin Svetozar Marovic, on the grounds of his alleged pro-independence views.

SRS secretary general Aleksander Vucic said, "We will not put up with threats and blackmail on a daily basis from someone who is a senior Montenegrin official.”

While the SRS won the recent election, it does not have a strong enough majority to rule and is unlikely to be able to form a coalition government. This task will most likely fall to four other parties – three of which are in favour of an even tighter federal union between the two nations.

Chief among these is the Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, which is led by the former federal president Vojislav Kostunica, who is likely to be appointed prime minister designate.

Only the reformist G17 Plus party – the fourth group expected to form a new government - is arguing for a clean break between the two states.

Meanwhile, the Montenegrin authorities are insisting on a loose state union with Serbia in anticipation of a referendum on independence in 2005.

Sonja Biserko, chairwoman of the Serbian Helsinki Committee, said, "The new Serbian government - regardless of which parties eventually form it - will certainly have a more aggressive approach to Montenegro.

“If a right-wing government dominated by the SRS or the DSS is formed, the coalition with Montenegrin prime minister Milo Djukanovic will fall apart. This may heighten tensions which in turn could destabilise the whole region."

The normalisation in relations between Belgrade and Podgorica following the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in October 2000 was thanks to a political alliance forged between Djukanovic and the late Serbian premier Zoran Djindjic, acting on behalf of the then ruling Democratic Opposition of Serbia coalition.

The alliance survived Djindjic's assassination in March 2003, after which his successor Zoran Zivkovic was appointed prime minister and helped to preserve the loose union forged by the Belgrade Agreement 12 months earlier.

Djukanovic’s coalition with DOS at federal level enabled the Montenegrin premier to hold on to considerable autonomy, particularly over the economy.

This was possible because the coalition operated on a simple principle – the creation of fragile institutions at federal level to please senior European Union officials, but sovereign rule over their respective territories.

Thus Podgorica, which had switched its legal tender from the Yugoslav dinar to the euro prior to the Belgrade Agreement, was subsequently able to retain the latter currency and kept its own low tariffs for certain agricultural products, despite opposition from the EU, which insists on a common system of levies for Serbia-Montenegro.

As well as negotiating a high degree of autonomy within the new entity, Djukanovic also maintained parity with Serbia in the most important federal institutions. His colleague Svetozar Marovic, who is credited with improving relations between Belgrade and Podgorica, was appointed the president of the state union and chairman of its ministerial council.

But now the honeymoon is over and analysts fear that agreements made between Belgrade and Podgorica in the past several months may well fall through.

First, the results of Serbia’s early parliamentary election will change the current composition of the federal parliament since Djukanovic’s allies, the DOS coalition, is no longer in power.

There are no direct elections to the state assembly – parties elected to the republican bodies designate representatives to federal one.

The SRS, DSS and Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia, SPS, will have a two-thirds majority within the latter – and these parties have been embroiled in protracted disputes and clashes with the Podgorica authorities over their independence aspirations.

Analysts in Montenegro warn this may herald a beginning of a serious constitutional crisis.

"With no other options left, the Montenegrin government will resort to obstructing the work of the federal organs, almost like it did during the Milosevic era," Montenegrin analyst Drasko Djukaranovic told IWPR.

Observers say that the problem lies not only with the Serbian right-wing forces, but the moderate political parties of the democratic bloc as well, such as G17 Plus. This party is not happy with the current loose state union as, they argue, it harms Serbia’s economic interests.

Apparently, G17 Plus senior officials firmly believe the two republics will not be able to harmonise their respective legal economic systems.

During the election campaign, senior G17 Plus official Mladjan Dinkic said, "If we come to power, we will immediately cancel the existing agreement with Montenegro … It's time for Serbia to look after itself and its own interests."

Milka Tadic Mijovic is a journalist with the Monitor magazine in Podgorica.