Sunni Election Dilemma

Recent declarations by representatives of mainstream Sunni Arab groups in Iraq clearly reflect the dilemma they are facing - should they participate in the January 30 elections or not?

The latest statement reflecting this dilemma came from the largest Sunni group, the moderate Iraqi Islamic Party, IIP, which represents the Iraqi branch of the wider Muslim Brotherhood movement in the Arab world. Ammar Wajeeh, a member of IIP political bureau was quoted on January 14 in the London-based Al-Hayat Arabic daily as saying that his party does not bar its members and supporters from voting and they are free to vote for any list they chose - despite the fact that IIP has decided to "withdraw" from the elections.

It is worth mentioning that IIP’s December decision to withdraw from the interim Iraqi government, and later from elections, stirred controversy within the leadership of the party. The IIP’s minister of industry and minerals Hachim Al-Hussein refused to resign from his post and later joined the “Iraqis” list headed by President Ghazi Al-Yawar.

In fact the ethnic-religious-sectarian division in Iraq is not so cut and dried. Unlike many outside the country, the Iraqis themselves don’t see it that way.

Al-Yawar, who is a Sunni Arab, belongs to the hierarchy of Shammar, Iraq’s largest tribe. However, his uncle Shaikh Ajeel Al-Yawar - who is the supreme leader of the tribe - decided to join the largest Shia group, the United Iraqi Alliance, which is supported by the Grand Ayatolla Ali Sistani and is likely to be get the largest portion of the vote. It is even rumoured that Sheikh Ajeel will be the Alliance’s choice for the presidency.

The IIP’s position on the elections is strongly rejected by the other main Sunni Arab group, the Muslim Clerics Council, MCC, which calls for a full boycott of the ballot.

Spokesperson Muthanna Harith Al-Dhari - who is also the son of the council’s president Shaikh Harith Al-Dhari - admitted that “not all the Sunnis are opposed to the elections, but a majority of them are against the timing of the elections under occupation”.

He criticised the IIP, telling the Iraqi weekly Al-Ahali on January 12 that the party “has one foot in the government and another in the resistance”. Al-Dhari said that all branches of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in the Arab world, “except the Kuwait branch” denounces the position of the IIP, and even alleged that some members of the IIP have “formed a fighting squad and joined the resistance”.

The election is not the only issue which represents a dilemma to the Sunni Arabs.

The MCC openly supports the resistance against the occupying coalition, but tries to distance itself from the pro-Saddam Sunni Ba’ath party which is the leading force behind the insurgency.

In the same interview with Al-Ahali, Muthanna Al-Dhari claimed that the Ba’ath party is split into streams, saying, “One stream, the official, demands the return of Saddam Hussein and the old regime. This raises sensitivities in the Iraqi street.”

However, Al-Dhari added that his group opposes the idea of de-Ba’athification, “because the Ba’ath party has a popular base and represents an important (Arab) nationalistic ideology”.

“[The MCC] prefers that the Ba’athists stay away at this stage from the political process and stick to its role in the resistance. On top of that, it is important that the Ba’ath abandons its insistence on monopolising [power]. It should also criticise its previous practices.”

Last week, a surprise meeting took place between the head of the MCC and the US ambassador John Negroponte. Shaikh Dhari said that he wanted several demands to be met before calling off the boycott of the elections. The MCC wants an end to occupation, a new government consisting of technocrats and the elections to be held under the full UN auspices. He later said that the MCC wants to continue the dialogue with the Americans despite the fact that the US rejected his demands.

The question about the extent of the Sunni Arab boycott of the elections remains unclear in the absence of credible information and opinion polls. The security situation in the so-called Sunni triangle and parts of Baghdad makes it impossible to conduct reliable polls and create normal conditions for the elections. So the debate will no doubt continue until polling day.

However, the claim by the MCC and the resistance that a majority of Sunni Arabs will boycott the elections should not be dismissed.

The Iraqi government and the coalition admit that voting will be very difficult in the five provinces where the majority of Iraq’s Sunni Arabs live.

Assuming that the security situation will not improve by January 30, this means that a majority of Sunni Arabs will not participate in the elections, whether by desire or by force.

Kamran Al-Karadaghi is IWPR’s Iraq editorial director.