New Formula for Stalled Integration Process

After two years of scant progress in negotiations between the state union and Brussels, the European Union, which helped bring the new entity into existence in the first place, is proposing a new approach.

To step up the stalled process of integration with Europe, officials of the European Commission and the EU Council Secretariat are visiting Belgrade and Podgorica to outline a new, twin-track approach for the two republics.

This involves the economies of Serbia and Montenegro being integrated separately into the EU – although the state union will remain Europe’s overall partner.

The two-track approach was first aired in early September at Maastricht, where foreign ministers of the 25 EU member countries agreed to step up the accession process for Serbia and Montenegro.

Analysts in Brussels say Europe has not abandoned its fundamental commitment to the state union but has decided a twin-track approach may remove some of the barriers that have stalled negotiations with the new entity on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, SAA.

After two years of talks, Serbia and Montenegro has made almost no progress in the Stabilisation and Association Process, SAP, as the EU project to assist western Balkan states on their path towards EU membership is called.

Two main obstacles have been Serbia’s lack of cooperation with The Hague war crimes tribunal and the unwillingness of both republics to make the state union work.

This has brought to a standstill plans to create a common economic market and to harmonise the two economic systems.

Both republics are blamed for lacking the political will to establish a functioning common market. Their failure to harmonise customs duties for 56 agricultural products as well as tariffs has seriously blocked their joint path towards Europe.

An IWPR source close to the EC mission in Belgrade said Europe believed it had now found a mechanism to break the cycle of mutual accusations between Podgorica and Belgrade over who was to blame for the delays.

The objective of the new approach was to “unclog the system”, the same source added.

Experts believe both republics will now sign a single SAA if it contains separate annexes - concerning economic and technical issues - for Montenegro and for Serbia.

The European Commissioner for External Affairs, Chris Patten, was first to come up with the idea of a twin-track approach.

Patten outlined the concept in a letter sent in mid-July to Bernard Bot, chair of the EU Ministerial Council and Dutch foreign minister.

In the letter, widely carried in the Montenegrin media, Patten said no negotiations on Serbia and Montenegro’s accession to Europe could be held before an agreement was reached between the two republics, adding that such an agreement appeared distant (letter republished in this issue).

Patten said a lack of political will lay behind the failure to harmonise the economic systems of the two republics after two years of negotiations.

The message that followed from Maastricht was that preserving the state union remained a priority. Bot, as chair of the EU Ministerial Council, said, “For the European Union, it is essential to endorse the state union, even though it recognises new realities.”

Explaining why the EU remained committed to the state union, Bot especially referred to “the impact this issue has on the stability and security of the region”.

EU Balkan experts warn of the danger of Montenegro opting for independence on the basis of a referendum in which the margin between supporters and opponents of independence was narrow, saying it may threaten the very stability of the republic.

“We are concerned about possible reactions in the case of independence by those who staunchly oppose the idea, and there are many such people in Montenegro,” one EU diplomat told IWPR.

Although Brussels clearly prefers a joint approach by Serbia and Montenegro to Europe, many diplomats have admitted the EU cannot oppose Montenegrin independence too forcefully, as the Belgrade Agreement, which established the state union, envisages the possibility of separation if the two republics agree.

The EU and Serbia and Montenegro are now racing against time to achieve some progress, as all are increasingly aware of the risk of the state union becoming a political “black hole” in the Balkans.

Croatia has already been granted candidate status and within five months will formally open negotiations on accession. Macedonia is currently involved in a SAP, and submitted a formal request for membership. Albania is in talks with EU about the SAP.

Even Kosovo is included in the process through so-called "tracking mechanisms", which allow for technical harmonisation with the EU without pre-determining its final status.

Serbia and Montenegro, on the other hand, has not met even the prerequisites for the preparation of a feasibility study by the EU.

Many EC experts say progress must now be made, as the state union remains the biggest entity in the entire region, with a major impact on the region’s stability and on the success of the overall accession process of the western Balkan states.

Augustin Palokaj is Brussels correspondent for the Croatian and Kosovan papers Jutarnji list and Kohe ditore respectively.