Syria’s Ten Post-Assad Challenges
As Syrians start to re-build, complex domestic, regional and international realties will determine this transition.
It took barely ten days for the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to fall. But his dramatic ousting was not simply down to the surprise military offensive by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS). It was rather the fruit of 14 years of revolution, conflict, destruction and death, and the struggle by media, civil society and human rights groups to keep the dream of freedom alive.
Syrians have paid a very heavy price – the country also endured 61 years of single-party and military rule by the Baath Party, and 54 years of one-family rule by the Assads.
And amidst their euphoria, Syrians know they now face serious domestic, regional and international challenges to rebuild their country.
Syria has been left devastated by the conflict that began with Assad’s brutal response to peaceful demonstrations that began in March 2011. Armed groups soon emerged, with regional and international powers fueling the conflict. While Turkey, the West, and some Arab countries backed the opposition, support from Russia and Iran meant Assad's regime regained much of its power by 2015.
The conflict shattered Syria's economy and infrastructure, with the Syrian army and Russian air forces targeting opposition strongholds, schools, hospitals and residential areas. Over 600,000 people died, 12 million fled their homes and many were imprisoned in brutal conditions and tortured to death. Radical Islamist groups also committed atrocities, but most deaths and destruction were caused by Assad and his allies.
The country is far from united. In the northeast, Arab-Kurdish tensions, violations committed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkish policies, and the presence of the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, that is known for its own atrocities, complicate the situation.
In the northwest, HTS controlled Idlib governorate for years. The country’s west faces the return of thousands of former regime members, as well as a looming unemployment crisis.
The midlands and the south, opposed to Assad, are heavily populated and diverse. Big cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama have always had better economic opportunities but also face rebuilding challenges. Safety and security will remain a challenge across the country.
Fundamentalist groups left their mark, with Al Qaeda affiliates radicalising young people. Despite entering a new era without Assad, Syrians have concerns about the future, especially with the emergence of HTS as the potential dominating power.
A Complex Landscape
Countries that played a significant role in the crisis will continue to do so in post-Assad Syria.
Iran wants to maintain its access via Syria to deliver weapons and support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Russia, which maintains two military bases in western Syria, backed Assad throughout and is likely to play a role in supporting former regime members.
Turkey has its own interest in subduing the Kurds, given their aspirations towards sovereignty. Turkey hosts over three million Syrian refugees, with political and public pressure mounting to address this issue. Ankara is likely to support any incoming government in economic and recovery efforts so that Syrians can return.
Qatar and other Gulf states support for the various factions reflect their own competition and tensions. The US and Europe, whose main interests are in avoiding another wave of refugees and containing Islamic fundamentalism, will be heavily involved while wary of potential descent into Islamist rule. They will also support the Kurds to maintain their gains and relative independence.
Any new administration in Syria will have to deal with these contrasting and competing priorities and demands of powers whose support will be crucial to any stabilisation and recovery efforts. Whether the Islamist HTS, which is still listed as a terrorist group by the West, or any coming government have the strategic vision to understand these complexities is yet to be tested.
Corruption and Poor Public Services
Before the crisis began in 2011, Syria was ranked 127 out of 178 countries for corruption by Transparency International. By 2023, it had fallen to 177 out of 180 countries.
Public services such as health care, energy, transport and communication were always poor. Syria's hybrid model of public and privately owned services, many state-subsidised, has also been severely impacted.
The interim government set up by HST, whose mandate expires in March, claims Syria will have a free market economy. However, many doubt its capability to address these issues, and there has been no word yet about a political process to decide who will run the country and how. If HTS plans to remain the default power, recovery will be much harder and perhaps impossible.
Building an effective and transparent bureaucracy is a lengthy process, requiring human resources, accountability mechanisms, legal reform and infrastructure rehabilitation. Experts estimate that returning to pre-2011 standards will take about ten years, let alone improving beyond those already poor levels.
Depleted Economy and Labour Market
Syria's economy contracted by 85 per cent during nearly 14 years of civil war, with GDP falling from 67.5 billion US dollars in 2011 to just 9 billion by 2023. The currency devalued significantly, leading to hyperinflation. Over half of Syrians live in poverty.
The war decimated Syria's economic pillars: oil production fell to less than 9,000 barrels per day in regime-controlled areas, and agriculture was severely impacted.
Over 4.82 million Syrians fled the country, and an additional 7 million remain internally displaced. Rebuilding Syria's economy and infrastructure was estimated to cost at least 250 billion dollars as of 2021, a figure likely to have since increased.
Economic recovery is crucial for Syria's stabilisation. Without this, frustrations over living conditions and services will rise. Economic recovery is also vital for the return of refugees from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, which have faced their own challenges due to the crisis. Rebuilding the economy requires a new legislative framework, an environment that attracts investment, infrastructure rebuilding and maintaining peace and public order. These should be top priorities for the future government.
National Security and Public Order
The Syrian army, heavily involved in Syria’s destruction, has left the country with little trust in military institutions and vulnerable to foreign threats. Regional and international powers have concerns about Syria developing advanced military capabilities; Israel has already acted to destroy what remained of Assad’s depleted army. Syria will likely have a small, incapable army for decades, especially in the absence of a peace deal with Israel. Integrating militias into a new national army is also a challenge, given that some groups are highly ideological and radical.
Police services in Syria were already corrupt and brutal, and the spread of arms, powerful militia, a resentful public and the absence of accountability could lead to disorder and crime. National security and public safety are major challenges, requiring utmost seriousness and commitment. This also requires collaboration with local communities, influential figures and religious leaders in the transitional period. Trust will remain the main issue that governments must deal with.
Transitional Justice and Accountability
The Syrian regime is believed to be behind most of the destruction and deaths that occurred since 2011, with evidence of these atrocities well documented and efforts to hold some people accountable well underway.
HTS is itself implicated in grave human rights violations, alongside other militant groups - including the Kurdish-led SDF. How will this work for transitional justice? How can the mechanisms established to investigate and hold perpetrators to account be guaranteed to be transparent? How will this impact national reconciliation, the political process and recovery efforts?
Syrians expect to have justice, which will also help restore trust between communities by bringing closure to many grieving families. But the complexity of the conflict means this may not be as attainable as it seemed on December 8.
Regional and International Relations
A host of countries now aim to maintain or expand their influence, which may not align with the interests of the Syrian people.
Syria's future stability depends on navigating these dynamics. Establishing a balanced foreign policy that engages with both regional and global powers will be crucial. This includes fostering positive relations with neighboring countries like Turkey and the Arab states, while also managing the interests of former regime allies like Russia and Iran.
The international community's support will be essential in rebuilding Syria's economy and infrastructure.
National Reconciliation and Identity Building
Historically, Syria has long experienced tensions among its social, ethnic and religious groups, from the legacy of the French mandate to the persecution of religious groups under Muslim rule and the exclusion of the Kurds, Syria’s largest ethnic minority, by the Baath regime.
Recent and current grievances are now at play. The Sunni majority has long been oppressed, and their towns and cities saw the most destruction. There is hardly a family that has not lost a loved one in regime bombing or in Assad’s prison system. Other communities that have supported Assad have lost many lives and are grieving too for their own reasons.
War has deepened these divides, and suspicion and distrust now exacerbate social fragmentation.
Rebuilding efforts must focus on promoting inclusivity, protecting human [AA1] rights, equal citizenship and fostering dialogue among different communities, while ensuring accountability and justice. Additionally, creating a sense of national identity that transcends ethnic and religious lines will be crucial for long-term stability.
Democracy and Good Governance
These deep philosophical questions need to be discussed at a national level with every shade of the political, religious, social and ethnic spectrum. But governance is at the heart of everything. Having a responsible government that can be held accountable is the key to stability and recovery. How will different ideological groups, some that do not even believe in democracy, be engaged? A long-term plan is needed, but above all, a process to start this conversation is due.
The Possibility of New Dictatorship
Many Syrians have long dreamt of a democratic Syria where everyone enjoys full rights as equal citizenship and can elect and hold their leaders accountable.
The economic, security, social, and political challenges Syrians now face, along with regional and international dynamics, will all influence this journey. Failures to address grievances, contain the armed groups, build an effective, trustworthy bureaucracy and good governance will lead to resentment and frustration. The current default power and its allies do not necessarily believe in democracy and mostly come from fundamental ideologies. Will they be willing to engage in a democratic process or will they try to cling to power? This conversation is playing out in different ways. Some Syrians are unconcerned; others have little or no trust in the intentions of HTS and its allies.
The Threat of Violence
And if these challenges are not addressed, Syria may descend into another brutal civil war. Lack of security, accountability and economic opportunity will heighten the exclusion of certain groups, and failures to build trust and national unity. We need to promote diversity and guarantee the rights of women, ethnic and religious groups; regional meddling and international pressure to accomplish a transition that appeals to the West without understanding Syria’s complex society cannot work.
Above all, this process must focus on Syrians, their hopes, wishes and dreams – and their future.
