Opposition Won't Feature in Pluralist Polls

Four political parties are competing in Uzbekistan’s December 17 parliamentary election, but none of them represents the opposition. Asked what would happen if – hypothetically – the opposition was taking part, NBCentralAsia commentators said they would pick a reasonable proportion of the vote, as an anti-government protest rather than because of their own policies.

Of the 150 seats in the lower house of parliament, 135 are being contested by the Adolat Social Democratic Party, the Milliy Tiklanish Democratic Party, the People's Democratic Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party, while the Environmental Movement will have 15 seats specially reserved for it.

Meanwhile, opposition groups like as Erk, Birlik, Ozod Dehkonlar (Free Peasants), the Birdamlik Movement and the Sunny Coalition never had a chance of nominating candidates as they enjoy no legal recognition in the country.

Their attempts to reinvigorate their presence have largely failed. Birdamlik leader Bahodir Choriev returned from abroad in Uzbekistan, but was placed under house arrest and his associates harassed, so that he was forced to leave again. (See Uzbek Opposition Party Leader Makes Surprise Return and Uzbek Police Foil Opposition Meetings, RCA No. 528, 25-Jan-08.)

That suggested that the authorities were not prepared to countenance any kind of dialogue with their opponents.

Opposition members say that shows how worried the authorities in Tashkent are about the potential for channeling a protest vote.

"Discontent with the current government is growing, and we would be able to take advantage of this opportunity," said Erk leader Muhammad Solih, who lives in Turkey. "If we were given the right to participate in parliamentary elections, and if the polls were half-way democratic, we would defeat the government of [President Islam] Karimov and his followers. They’re aware of that, and that's why they won’t allow us back into the country."

Abdujalil Boymatov, head of the Human Rights Society of Uzbekistan, who is currently based in Ireland, is sceptical of such claims.

"It's naïve to think the opposition would find support of people upon its return to Uzbekistan," he told NBCA. "It would take at least three years hard work to find support among the electorate. Society has lived under the Karimov dictatorship for so long that it’s impossible to change the mentality overnight."

Boymatov believes the various opposition groups should work together, develop a common strategy, and publicise it via the internet and personal contacts in the country, as well as by engaging with the international community.

"To date, the Uzbek opposition has not articulated its views on pressing domestic matters, and it does not publish reports or statements,” he said. “It has no sense of unity with the people; it has become distant from them.”

Choriev agrees that more needs to be done to make the Uzbek population aware of opposition groups.

"I know this for certain," he said. "We need to begin preparing and move step by step. People don’t have much information about the opposition, and they need to be made aware of it."

For this to work, he added, opposition parties would first need to win official registration in Uzbekistan.

Voters in Uzbekistan appear largely unfamiliar with the policies espoused by opposition parties.

"People don’t respect them," said Umid, a 32-year-old voter from Tashkent. "First they should make their aims known, and only then could one talk about which of them deserves support."

Jahongir, the 22-year-old resident of Bukhara in the west of the country, expressed a sense of apathy about both the opposition and the entire electoral process.

"I don't care about the elections," he said, "and I don't know anything about any opposition abroad."

By contrast, Matluba, an older woman from Fergana, while similarly dismissive of the elections, said she would consider voting for the opposition if that were possible.

"I don’t like any of the existing parties; they’re all ineffectual,” she said. “I might support some of the opposition if they were allowed to stand. Is that a realistic possibility?"

A journalist from Tashkent said popular dissatisfaction with economic problems coupled with high-handed government, widespread corruption and restrictions on basic rights had created a groundswell which could in theory be exploited by an opposition force.

"The protest potential that exists among the majority of people makes the idea of any kind of opposition to the current authorities quite attractive," he says. "If the opposition leaders now abroad were allowed to take part in the parliamentary election, they would win the backing of at least 20 per cent of the electorate, irrespective of who they are."

Some observers say the lack of coordination among opposition groups creates a vacuum which could be filled by other, more radical forces such as the Islamists.

"They’re just as capable of winning popular support as the democrats, given the current dictatorship and problems," said an analyst in the eastern town of Fergana said. "Why not?"

(NBCA is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service has resumed, covering Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.)