Impact of Election Still in Question

On donkeys and trucks, and under armed guard, the ballots cast by millions of Afghans in the parliamentary and provincial elections are making their way to the 34 vote-counting centres around the country.

Although election officials say most of the ballot boxes have now arrived for the count, it may take up to a week for some to arrive from the more remote areas, where pack animals are the only reliable means of transport over mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, even trucks travelling on dirt tracks may take as long as four days to deliver the boxes.

Collecting the votes of the scattered Kuchi nomads, who were choosing candidates for the 10 seats reserved for them, will also be a challenge.

An army of 7,000 election workers has already begun to tally the votes in the cities.

While intense security seems to have thwarted attacks by the Taleban, some analysts are questioning whether the exercise, costing over 150 million US dollars, can truly be considered a success.

They argue that if turnout figures prove to be much lower than the 70 per cent recorded in last year’s presidential poll, this will inevitably reflect poorly on the government of President Hamed Karzai and its supporters in Washington.

The Joint Electoral Management Body, JEMB, in a statement after the poll, said that based on early returns, turnout was predicted at just over 50 per cent of an estimated electorate of over 12 million.

In what appeared to be an effort to lower expectations, JEMB operations chief Peter Erben said it was common for fewer people to vote in a second election, citing turnout figures in Bosnia and Colombia as examples.

Political analyst Habibullah Rafi believes the turnout level was influenced by other factors such as disillusionment among voters.

"The presidential election influenced this one,” he said. “After the October vote, people were expecting the government to do a lot to improve their lives, by spending the money which donors around the world had dedicated to Afghanistan.

"The government spent the money on reconstruction, but unfortunately living conditions have changed for the worse since the presidential poll."

Rafi said many people were upset that Karzai had "embraced some old warlords and appointed them as his vice-presidents – that’s not what people were expecting."

He also said the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, UNMA, and the JEMB had fallen short of expectations in educating the electorate.

Other observers also said they thought many people had been deterred from voting by the sense of disappointment that followed the presidential poll, which had been welcomed with great enthusiasm.

Analyst Mohammad Qasim Akhghar says Karzai has failed to keep the promises he made during last year’s presidential campaign, "The people are asking themselves what crown they have adorned us with since that election, that we should bother to go out and vote this time,"

Bashir Bezhan, another analyst, contrasted the present mood with the enthusiasm shown in last year’s poll, saying that people felt cheated by the count then and predicting the same after this election.

"This government has acted like a dictator from the beginning and the people are aware that the mechanism it approved for the parliament election is totally invalid," he said.

Mohammad Hassan Wolesmal, a political analyst who is chief editor of Jarida-ye-Milli-ye-Afghan (Afghan National Magazine), suggested that the long and complicated ballot papers were simply too much for many Afghans, the majority of whom are illiterate.

Observers from the Bangkok-based Asian Network for Free Elections, ANFREL, also raised questions over the poll, despite what the group called a "significant improvement" in JEMB preparations compared with the presidential election.

One problem was the apparent lack of voter education for the Kuchis, many of whom seemed to think President Karzai was a candidate.

ANFREL also cited what it called "a glaring contrast" between rich and poorer candidates in campaigning.

"Those with ample resources hosted lunches and dinners for the voters and had expensive election paraphernalia such as huge billboards and more than sufficient posters…. Under such conditions, it is an open question whether the best candidates can compete freely and fairly," said the group’s interim report.

Damaso Magbual, who led a delegation of 30 election observers for the organisation, said many candidates had apparently breached spending limits, with reports that one electronic billboard alone cost some 8,000 dollars. There was a 15,000 dollar spending ceiling on candidates’ campaigned.

ANFREL criticised the Electoral Complaints Commission for its late disqualification of certain candidates, and its failure to post their names in polling stations. "There are fears that a number of ballots will be set aside in the count," it added.

Observers from the Washington-based International Republican Institute, IRI, said the elections were well organised and that voters "appeared well informed as to the balloting process".

IWPR reporters found this assessment was sometimes optimistic.

In the central Bamian province, for example, one woman named Baseerah told IWPR, "I heard through the media that my vote would be secret and no one would force me to vote for this or that person. But this woman who said she was in charge told me I must vote for Sadiq Ali. That made me decide to avoid casting my vote for anyone."

Similar stories of voters uncertain of their rights or being intimidated were reported elsewhere.

IRI delegation leader Constance Berry Newman, a former US assistant secretary of state, conceded at a press conference that rumours that the indelible ink meant to thwart multiple voting could be cleaned off, that some ballot boxes were taken to people's homes, and that forged papers were distributed in Herat all needed investigation.

Meanwhile, the day after the election, one parliamentary candidate in Kabul found himself the target of a demonstration by 200 people who claimed he had reneged on a promise to pay them to campaign on his behalf.

One woman, Shafiqah, said she had worked for Abdul Jabar Paikan for three months, and also as an observer on election day. He had promised to pay 350 dollars a month for campaigning and 50 dollars for working on voting day, she said, a claim supported by others in the crowd.

Demonstrators also said that one of the candidate's supporters had got them to sign a paper which was supposed to get them accreditation as observers. But one man, Shkatullah, said they discovered the paper was actually "a receipt" for payments they say they never received.

It was not possible to contact Paikan. A police official said he was now in custody, after all the demonstrators had signed a letter of complaint against him.

In Hesar Shahi, east of the Nangarhar provincial centre Jalalabad, parliamentary candidate Engineer Omar complained to IWPR, "Ten thousand eligible people were disenfranchised because there was no polling centre for them to go to. We want this to be publicised so that all the people know about it."

According to a local news agency, Nil Kanta, the JEMB official responsible for eastern provinces including Nangarhar acknowledged the error of not having a local voting centre.

Local residents said they were told to go to the nearest polling station, but that this would have involved a two-hour walk.

The Electoral Complaints Commission said it had received a number of complaints but could not immediately comment "since complaints filed in polling stations will only be opened in the early stages of the counting process".

Organisers forecast a 16-day wait for provisional results from the September 18 election, which was contested by nearly 6,000 parliamentary and provincial candidates. Final results are expected on October 22, to give time for complaints to be resolved.

Karzai welcomed the elections as a "step closer to peace and stability" while state-run newspapers lauded the process. The independent newspaper Arman-e-Milli said the calm atmosphere on voting day "may offer a ray of hope and enable the majority of voters to think about the future".

Wolesmal was less optimistic, saying, "Many people think the parliamentary election will bring no changes to their life, because there will be lots of warlords and commanders sitting in parliament whose hands are stained with the blood of the people, and these men will have a key role."