Uzbek, Turkmen Wariness of Closer Afghan Ties

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will inevitably have to deal with Afghanistan more directly once international forces withdraw from the country in coming years, according to regional expert Dosym Satpaev. But both these Central Asian states will keep engagement with Afghanistan within certain limits, because of ongoing instability there as much as anything else.

IWPR asked Satpaev, director of the Risk Assessment Group in Almaty, Kazakstan, to comment on the changing role of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as neighbours of Afghanistan.

NBCentralAsia: Are Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan keen to build trade and transport links with Afghanistan?

Dosym Satpaev: Uzbekistan is already working on transport projects, especially in northern Afghanistan, where many Uzbeks live. Tashkent is seeking allies in Afghanistan, as it has done before by backing the militia leader Abdul Rashid Dostam. Its primary concern is security – reducing the risk of spillover from Afghanistan as far as it can.

For Turkmenistan, the main interest in Afghanistan is as a possible transit route for natural gas exports. Plans for a pipeline running through Afghan territory to the subcontinent date back more than a decade.

By contrast, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are both more involved in regional infrastructure projects such as the CASA-1000 project for power lines taking Kyrgyz and Tajik electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Uzbekistan may formally sign up to transport and trade deals with Afghanistan, but is less than wholeheartedly committed to them, principally because no one can guarantee security in that country. Turkmen support for Afghan infrastructure projects will be similarly ambivalent – fine if they work out, no loss if they don’t.

NBCentralAsia: The "New Silk Road Programme" that was discussed at a conference in Istanbul in early November seeks to create greater regional integration in transport, communication, economics and culture. But what is the draw for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, both of which are to economically isolated?

Satpaev: Central Asia has more divides than bridges, so it’s certainly too early to talk about integration with Afghanistan. That just isn’t a priority, and neither Uzbekistan not Turkmenistan is interested…. The Central Asian region is unfortunately divided into rival groupings and there is no unifying idea.

If economic integration means a more pragmatic association of states, even that it is impossible in practice, too. We can only talk about economic cooperation with Afghanistan, and that only in certain areas, since much of that country’s economy revolves around drug trafficking and other illicit activity.

It’s easier for Uzbekistan to build economic integration with Russia or Kazakstan, whereas Turkmenistan has moved to closer economic ties with Turkey.

NBCentralAsia: Once NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan, neighbours like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will have to play a greater role. How will that impact their respective domestic political systems?

Satpaev: The United States has set a deadline of 2014 for the withdrawal of combat troops. But I think it will be like Iraq, where the US retains a military presence despite the end of the combat mission. Everyone realises that neither President Hamed Karzai nor any potential successor is going to be able to hold onto power without American support. And no one will benefit if the [Taleban] extremists come to power.

I would agree that the troop pullout will increase the geopolitical role played by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. But I don’t see that having a direct impact on domestic politics.

American influence has had some influence on Uzbek and Turkmen domestic developments, but it isn’t a defining factor. If you recall, the presence of a US military airbase in Uzbekistan between 2001 and 2005 didn’t actually have any impact domestically. However closely Tashkent or Ashgabat cooperates with Washington, they will keep it at arm’s length.

This article was produced as part of IWPR's News Briefing Central Asia output, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.

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