Montenegro: Cabinet Sparks Reform Fears

Economists and opposition deputies are unconvinced by prime minister's choice of ministers to lead the country out of poverty.

There are fears that Montenegro may not get the reforms it so badly needs, as its newly-appointed cabinet is almost identical to the old one which failed to make vital changes.

Montenegro's prime minister-designate Milo Djukanovic - the former president who leads the Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS - and his ministers were sworn in by parliament on January 8.

Djukanovic's party won a landslide victory in the October 2002 elections, and the then-president decided to take on the role of prime minister as it afforded him more power and influence than his previous post.

But analysts believe that he has made only cosmetic changes to the old cabinet, which he heavily influenced, and failed to implement necessary legislative changes.

Even those who share Djukanovic's views on Montenegrin independence and agree with his economic priorities are expressing doubts about his ability to implement them.

Most worrying for the new prime minister is the response of Montenegro's intellectuals - most of whom have supported the pro-independence Djukanovic from the very beginning.

University professor Svetozar Jovicevic, president of the Group for Change Council - a non-governmental organisation comprised of economic experts - recently turned down the offer of a portfolio in the Djukanovic government. "It is inconceivable to enter a government without knowing what you are supposed to do there," he explained.

In an open letter to Djukanovic on December 15, 2002, 18 pro-independence university professors and journalists voiced concern that the cabinet was now full of Djukanovic placemen. They are demanding that "the interests of Montenegro take precedence over narrow party and personal interests - and without the arrogance abundantly displayed thus far".

Even economic analysts formerly loyal to the new prime minister have voiced their discontent.

They insist that Montenegro is in a far worse state than in 1990, when Djukanovic first came to power.

There has been no economic growth, with last year's per capita GDP staying at the 2001 level of 1,300 US dollars. Meanwhile, the Montenegrin budget deficit in the first nine months of 2002 soared to approximately 150 million euro, and the unemployment rate is around 30 per cent.

Poverty is still a serious problem. Two-thirds of the nation's employees earn between 100 and 200 euro a month - but the monthly cost of staple food and groceries for a family of four costs 250 euro.

But for the moment the main area of concern is the structure of the new cabinet - formed after the DPS coalition victory in the October poll.

Dragan Djurovic and Branimir Gvozdenovic remain deputy prime ministers; while Miroslav Ivanisevic, Darko Uskokovic and Milutin Simonovic continue to hold the finance, economy and energy and agriculture portfolios, respectively. Predrag Nenezic was to be retained as tourism minister - but he withdrew at the last minute after being involved in a car accident.

Djukanovic has not only kept the majority of his predecessor Filip Vujanovic's officials. The basic programme principles are also the same.

In his inaugural statement, the new prime minister listed a series of priorities identical to those of Vujanovic - reform of public administration, the judiciary and local government as well as the passage of a new law on the police force, and the establishment of the National Security Agency.

Djukanovic also pledged to introduce tax reforms, eradicate the grey economy, introduce more liberal economic regulations, encourage entrepreneurship and the private sector, and tackle unemployment.

In conclusion, Djukanovic predicted that Montenegro would be an independent state within three years - last year's Belgrade agreement, signed by Vujanovic under his presidency, reinforced the country's ties with Serbia and effectively ruled out sovereignty for that period of time.

In spite of Djukanovic's reform pledges, many analysts are reluctant to give the new government their unconditional support.

"We have reservations about the skills of the new cabinet members as well as their potential to carry out the reforms," said Nebojsa Medojevic, director of the Centre for Transition, and one of Montenegro's most vociferous critics of organised crime and corruption.

"This government consists of people who will dutifully comply with Djukanovic's instructions - so the burden of responsibility will rest entirely on his shoulders."

Medojevic stressed the importance of reforms in the judiciary, police and customs departments, "It is premature to voice any criticism or praise, but we will present our view to the public after we see what the government's four-year programme looks like."

Members of the opposition have hit out at the new cabinet.

"No one in his right mind could possibly believe, even for a second, that these same old policies could lead to an economic upturn," said Bozidar Bojovic, president of the Serbian People's Party, told IWPR.

The cabinet members, both new and re-appointed, have yet to respond to the public criticism, citing their heavy workloads.

Zoran Radulovic is assistant editor at the Podgorica weekly Monitor and a regular IWPR contributor.

Locations Africa